How We Know · Case 003Missing comparison class

What GPT-4's 90th-percentile bar-exam claim compared

The claim: GPT-4 scored around the 90th percentile on the bar exam.

Why care: A score can be historical fact while its headline rank changes with the people, administration, cutoff, and interpolation used for comparison. The missing noun after “percentile” changes what the number means.

encyclopedia finding

historical simulated score documented; percentile is comparison-class dependent

If you use this claim

Treat the historical score as a score, not as a universal percentile: name the exam administration and comparison population every time.

The documented result concerns one historical simulated-UBE run assembled from multiple score components.

BoundaryHistorical evidence through 2026-08-27 about one simulated UBE score and the comparison populations used to rank it. This evidence file does not describe current model behavior, practicing-lawyer quality, or general legal competence.

The evidence map

How the familiar claim changes under inspection

01 · What is documented

One historical simulated score

The report, paper, repository, and supplement describe manifestations of one bounded model run.

02 · What moves

The percentile

Official administration charts and modeled populations place the same score differently.

03 · What to carry forward

Score plus comparator

State the administration and comparison population; do not turn the rank into general legal competence.

Lineage accounting

The units count different things

1historical model runReport, paper, repository, and supplement share one experiment 3official administration sensitivitiesThe same score ranks differently across official Illinois charts 7rooted evidence unitsSeven units after editions and reused score inputs are collapsed 3unresolved boundariesVisible limits receive no invented value or broader interpretation

Shared capture: The report, research paper, repository, and supplements are manifestations of one historical model run; the Martinez analysis reuses that score and aggregate comparison data.

Warrant boundary: Percentile is not a property of the score alone. It depends on the administration, population, cutoff, interpolation, and model assumptions.

Sentence x-ray

What the selected record actually supports

Read the statement first. Its exact work, edition, span, retrieval, digest, and license chain—plus dependence and calculations—remain one disclosure away.

01support

OpenAI's launch-edition report displayed 298/400 and approximately 90th percentile for a simulated UBE.

GPT-4 Technical Report · Table 1, PDF p. 5 GPT-4 Technical Report · Appendix A.1, PDF p. 23 Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · footnote 5 Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · §4(d), Table 7 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · introduction, journal p. 584 Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · §3(a), materials GPT-4 Technical Report · Appendix A.3, PDF p. 24 GPT-4 Technical Report · Appendix A.6, PDF p. 25 Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · footnote 4

Trace this statement

Relation: relation-assertion-claim-launch-score-label em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:c4c25358513582c6f0bec9b1006974b13e32d524aff7d3f65ecd7107e0501b7f
Proposition: claim-launch-score-label em:dossier-proposition:sha256:c8893cb50e4e0702860b0e95d0bcff6b42ec4829435614188dfc775c3b790780
Assertion: assertion-claim-launch-score-label em:dossier-assertion:sha256:a3d71e28d0bf3602752a29727659782855a07b71d503841cfb82d25819cce382
Lineage: lineage-model-performance-root em:dossier-lineage:sha256:c8b81e09b0245e5c5302dd89be2d627f7658d7ab0d5de6d56adef3df0f65e145

Typed dependence

edge-author-social-collaborationlineage-model-performance-root → lineage-model-performance-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:b616095462050178a4dedd71e5ad524effaa71d20808eceb206d203f9aae8204accepted_edge_id=edge-author-social-collaboration; accepted_dimension=author-social; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-model-performance-root; effects=The vendor report and study are socially linked manifestations, not independent tests.
edge-citation-katz-to-martinezlineage-model-performance-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:a8c16efd90634c0a152f0fdd7a0a02f8d844004ea05edec24ec4651bf00764ccaccepted_edge_id=edge-citation-katz-to-martinez; accepted_dimension=citation; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=Citation links the analysis lineage to the same reported score.
edge-data-reported-score-reuselineage-model-performance-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:691d48bc190063d50b6e811c7455ec325b1f29bcc7452301694470e83211188aaccepted_edge_id=edge-data-reported-score-reuse; accepted_dimension=data; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=The re-analysis is not a new model-performance experiment. | Score validation changes warrant, not the participant or model-performance root count.
edge-material-shared-exam-itemslineage-model-performance-root → lineage-model-performance-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:8f61eda50599e5c6c226c2dcb7818c8627f23979fd5b51669aa62e5d52f6d110accepted_edge_id=edge-material-shared-exam-items; accepted_dimension=material; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-model-performance-root; effects=All score manifestations inherit the same exam-item materials.
edge-method-single-free-response-runlineage-model-performance-root → lineage-model-performance-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:1ed5b88123954bc8da25cf9422c2df70e30d3569ddd99213e9cf5590bf8522c3accepted_edge_id=edge-method-single-free-response-run; accepted_dimension=method; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-model-performance-root; effects=Repeated documents do not supply repeated-run independence.
edge-model-historical-snapshotslineage-model-performance-root → lineage-model-performance-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:e7c0af1eebfe5fa400bcb3369655f40adf482a99cc91a370f6e6a586f847f133accepted_edge_id=edge-model-historical-snapshots; accepted_dimension=model; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-model-performance-root; effects=The two snapshots are components of one reported experiment, not two evidence roots.
edge-score-component-compositelineage-model-performance-root → lineage-model-performance-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:21278e42f97e114bc1442703ca96eea56725d7bb221a07e5c31f5adfc512b040accepted_edge_id=edge-score-component-composite; accepted_dimension=score; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-model-performance-root; effects=297 and 298 are scoring variants within one experiment.

02support

The report's 298 and study's approximately 297 are distinct scoring choices within one underlying experiment, not independent performance roots.

Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · abstract Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · footnote 4 GPT-4 Technical Report · Table 1, PDF p. 5 GPT-4 Technical Report · Appendix A.1, PDF p. 23 Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · footnote 5 Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · §4(d), Table 7 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · introduction, journal p. 584 Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · §3(a), materials GPT-4 Technical Report · Appendix A.3, PDF p. 24 GPT-4 Technical Report · Appendix A.6, PDF p. 25

Trace this statement

Relation: relation-assertion-claim-score-discrepancy em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:e9d39349fc7f22c3a9130402cf5608a2399cfdd054dfc68f2f80943a58693fea
Proposition: claim-score-discrepancy em:dossier-proposition:sha256:16536a669965de8c6a44bbd1474c6289ed91a1c68f758a1e1c650f572aa7ec19
Assertion: assertion-claim-score-discrepancy em:dossier-assertion:sha256:69abcd1669d34803c874bc6fae4a0c98a6032aaac088d8ee6ee6d7a21b098906
Lineage: lineage-model-performance-root em:dossier-lineage:sha256:c8b81e09b0245e5c5302dd89be2d627f7658d7ab0d5de6d56adef3df0f65e145

Typed dependence

edge-author-social-collaborationlineage-model-performance-root → lineage-model-performance-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:b616095462050178a4dedd71e5ad524effaa71d20808eceb206d203f9aae8204accepted_edge_id=edge-author-social-collaboration; accepted_dimension=author-social; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-model-performance-root; effects=The vendor report and study are socially linked manifestations, not independent tests.
edge-citation-katz-to-martinezlineage-model-performance-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:a8c16efd90634c0a152f0fdd7a0a02f8d844004ea05edec24ec4651bf00764ccaccepted_edge_id=edge-citation-katz-to-martinez; accepted_dimension=citation; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=Citation links the analysis lineage to the same reported score.
edge-data-reported-score-reuselineage-model-performance-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:691d48bc190063d50b6e811c7455ec325b1f29bcc7452301694470e83211188aaccepted_edge_id=edge-data-reported-score-reuse; accepted_dimension=data; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=The re-analysis is not a new model-performance experiment. | Score validation changes warrant, not the participant or model-performance root count.
edge-material-shared-exam-itemslineage-model-performance-root → lineage-model-performance-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:8f61eda50599e5c6c226c2dcb7818c8627f23979fd5b51669aa62e5d52f6d110accepted_edge_id=edge-material-shared-exam-items; accepted_dimension=material; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-model-performance-root; effects=All score manifestations inherit the same exam-item materials.
edge-method-single-free-response-runlineage-model-performance-root → lineage-model-performance-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:1ed5b88123954bc8da25cf9422c2df70e30d3569ddd99213e9cf5590bf8522c3accepted_edge_id=edge-method-single-free-response-run; accepted_dimension=method; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-model-performance-root; effects=Repeated documents do not supply repeated-run independence.
edge-model-historical-snapshotslineage-model-performance-root → lineage-model-performance-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:e7c0af1eebfe5fa400bcb3369655f40adf482a99cc91a370f6e6a586f847f133accepted_edge_id=edge-model-historical-snapshots; accepted_dimension=model; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-model-performance-root; effects=The two snapshots are components of one reported experiment, not two evidence roots.
edge-score-component-compositelineage-model-performance-root → lineage-model-performance-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:21278e42f97e114bc1442703ca96eea56725d7bb221a07e5c31f5adfc512b040accepted_edge_id=edge-score-component-composite; accepted_dimension=score; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-model-performance-root; effects=297 and 298 are scoring variants within one experiment.

03support

A linear interpolation not supplied by the sources places 298 near 89th in the February 2018 chart and 88.6th in the February 2019 chart.

Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents · total-scale table, rows 300 and 290 Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents · total-scale table, rows 300 and 290 Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents · total-scale table, rows 300 and 290

Trace this statement

Relation: relation-assertion-claim-february-sensitive em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:42a1ee6d6d5401c06d4982292f6e68ab82e3eccce9b9367fffc39c67e33c951d
Proposition: claim-february-sensitive em:dossier-proposition:sha256:1034ba4421c1aff2e41f247b73a2bb166fe691ba39953b278845bada50032f33
Assertion: assertion-claim-february-sensitive em:dossier-assertion:sha256:4d19bb08b6c5b6a93562979baf4325fe72ed00c92d854f403e6e3fea4db35665
Lineage: lineage-illinois-comparison-root em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a5b9820aa7d6c9062b89944f259392c039fbe5285b626d4f71d54dfd44f51a20

Typed dependence

edge-benchmark-illinois-chartslineage-illinois-comparison-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:3bbbc190e0662f0d0cf22c4bf02a5abe6f9e71e95061afd3dc94f535c83fb57aaccepted_edge_id=edge-benchmark-illinois-charts; accepted_dimension=benchmark; from=lineage-illinois-comparison-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=It is comparison data, not an additional GPT-4 performance root. | Population drift affects rank without changing the model score. | It is a sensitivity input, not a replication of the model run.

Calculation · reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation: 89.0; equation="p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)"; comparison_population=null; depends_on=[].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-illinois-feb-2018-298 em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:89e465da9ccc872747e2d6c2cf69dbffd57f4c4e3ddd1ec6974b3ce4f3653ecc
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:b3eb260778bfb82eeb304b0af6d0f95ae5970cb1e83f64f824eadc453cf0a11f
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:f5102c2dfb6527bc325f323f122a10c78a78bc7422ed053fbe00e8edf7d6ab1d

{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-illinois-feb-2018-298",
    "equation": "p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-illinois-feb-2018-290",
      "cell-illinois-feb-2018-300"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-illinois-feb-2018-anchors"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "p290": 85.0,
      "p300": 90.0,
      "score": 298
    },
    "method": "reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation",
    "result_percentile": 89.0,
    "uncertainty": "Neither Illinois nor OpenAI disclosed this interpolation; it cannot be attributed as the launch method."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2018-290",
      "percentile": 85,
      "score": 290
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2018-300",
      "percentile": 90,
      "score": 300
    }
  ]
}

span-calculation-derive-illinois-feb-2018-298accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-feb-2018-298em:dossier-span:sha256:ba2cde38323123970a17e90771d1f6e21ad66d1ddfa53841749b93e1113694ea · sha256:3037e78d052c9ae7ef8fc027de340daa7e7a1e7488092ce8c1d4ab46cfe1762eem:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-illinois-feb-2018-anchorstotal-scale table, rows 300 and 290em:dossier-span:sha256:56a011a09e4e7dd05afbc0309c94d4dcfa1ecf1d6fd3df6a6a6f65204c7ccf03 · sha256:b3b8f789db7571a4fd8ed73e5380f2847aae920172722b9f6f51eec96c62e9ceem:dossier-edition:sha256:9be0e724fc35f74c96e635c6263f8f44ef804c3406c34b268bb710b24228a368 · sha256:44de7bd89cd4aeacee7b38d7077ff659e3baf552cb9b295401ec9b7229c04964em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Calculation · reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation: 88.6; equation="p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)"; comparison_population=null; depends_on=[].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-illinois-feb-2019-298 em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:eab848ea50c1f7403f46775de29a61ab145b1ef616b6ddedd1befaf47c47d626
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:5e417788588abd558e96b1e86a8abbf760107f1b2c5cf87ab39ef6533de01c6f
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:2c467a78217c9cfd8e1927f656d2c404085fc79f1544227ad10737e3c0e96bb4

{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-illinois-feb-2019-298",
    "equation": "p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-illinois-feb-2019-290",
      "cell-illinois-feb-2019-300"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-illinois-feb-2019-anchors"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "p290": 83.0,
      "p300": 90.0,
      "score": 298
    },
    "method": "reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation",
    "result_percentile": 88.6,
    "uncertainty": "Neither Illinois nor OpenAI disclosed this interpolation; it cannot be attributed as the launch method."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2019-290",
      "percentile": 83,
      "score": 290
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2019-300",
      "percentile": 90,
      "score": 300
    }
  ]
}

span-calculation-derive-illinois-feb-2019-298accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-feb-2019-298em:dossier-span:sha256:b16e9a841685191e39868f05b3b6e4ab6adbd109794b3af87845e3609e2bfa8d · sha256:76a57ca09947680e56c24258540370c4538e5e7d69931cb76882834e659fb1f2em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-illinois-feb-2019-anchorstotal-scale table, rows 300 and 290em:dossier-span:sha256:1e2736835309f364d7f8553b6e26a7c9802dce86c720c84fa2097f7e3a755ca3 · sha256:29f7ab38f7ff54e4576aa5b3c6fd310debd0520513f68fc3e21744af073923f8em:dossier-edition:sha256:2c2badc4c75c58ca49007bda1f0c1fcad4b301ecd060bc905bd8a741acd80925 · sha256:91185bd6263d73e5976b5b00f28fb9b62301be0bb0347b1d0a308c295f6a6151em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Calculation · reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation: 67.8; equation="p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)"; comparison_population=null; depends_on=[].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-illinois-jul-2018-298 em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:76480f3d580abb1b7f822049d98d9d71df986bb9468385f053bc736857135b09
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:16d42772ecd2e1cf09e10207fd84bcdd82413184a1ca7e0a6f71222759c24539
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:173e036ea146192840c20d9a90986e589e15e92a37c4018264f3dba905e58e4c

{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-illinois-jul-2018-298",
    "equation": "p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-illinois-jul-2018-290",
      "cell-illinois-jul-2018-300"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-illinois-jul-2018-anchors"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "p290": 59.0,
      "p300": 70.0,
      "score": 298
    },
    "method": "reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation",
    "result_percentile": 67.8,
    "uncertainty": "Neither Illinois nor OpenAI disclosed this interpolation; it cannot be attributed as the launch method."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-jul-2018-290",
      "percentile": 59,
      "score": 290
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-jul-2018-300",
      "percentile": 70,
      "score": 300
    }
  ]
}

span-calculation-derive-illinois-jul-2018-298accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-jul-2018-298em:dossier-span:sha256:88fbcd4b7b93f462ad98350235a550f2b34f2dbc1a811849f0f40dc7cb03ee18 · sha256:1e02e47e6e3f6a7c2422be3a698ecce3d17899aef055d0f47f2745ec043366f5em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-illinois-jul-2018-anchorstotal-scale table, rows 300 and 290em:dossier-span:sha256:3ec4b97842a7b34ea0a2857a50da7f6a02eb1556351c7ec727b2cccd2743637c · sha256:fe399dcc350821ac8ab546593931f1e34b24d811cad9062126e487a53783a783em:dossier-edition:sha256:2b720aa3b7368249b079f4bc7d3de383efc590510bc33e1ed88db133e9293237 · sha256:a9aa31983924ffec8d0e713ad29fc16a0e466557a57eba5061577afc4698bae6em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

04support

The same disclosed linear interpolation places 298 near 67.8th in the July 2018 Illinois chart.

Trace this statement

Relation: relation-assertion-claim-july-sensitive em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:73716abf204fa15d841ff6b95c2dfbe303e3fcb4e06c26923a8fa5a618593415
Proposition: claim-july-sensitive em:dossier-proposition:sha256:c03843891cd010c53ddbe03e8d0128baeeccd8dedde381d2aaf3ed9a8bf08752
Assertion: assertion-claim-july-sensitive em:dossier-assertion:sha256:8feb34c96f4f746c4cea970e4ced3e891be6c2faa4d74e8370abed8ab69e8371
Lineage: lineage-illinois-comparison-root em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a5b9820aa7d6c9062b89944f259392c039fbe5285b626d4f71d54dfd44f51a20

Typed dependence

edge-benchmark-illinois-chartslineage-illinois-comparison-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:3bbbc190e0662f0d0cf22c4bf02a5abe6f9e71e95061afd3dc94f535c83fb57aaccepted_edge_id=edge-benchmark-illinois-charts; accepted_dimension=benchmark; from=lineage-illinois-comparison-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=It is comparison data, not an additional GPT-4 performance root. | Population drift affects rank without changing the model score. | It is a sensitivity input, not a replication of the model run.

Calculation · reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation: 89.0; equation="p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)"; comparison_population=null; depends_on=[].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-illinois-feb-2018-298 em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:89e465da9ccc872747e2d6c2cf69dbffd57f4c4e3ddd1ec6974b3ce4f3653ecc
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:b3eb260778bfb82eeb304b0af6d0f95ae5970cb1e83f64f824eadc453cf0a11f
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:f5102c2dfb6527bc325f323f122a10c78a78bc7422ed053fbe00e8edf7d6ab1d

{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-illinois-feb-2018-298",
    "equation": "p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-illinois-feb-2018-290",
      "cell-illinois-feb-2018-300"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-illinois-feb-2018-anchors"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "p290": 85.0,
      "p300": 90.0,
      "score": 298
    },
    "method": "reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation",
    "result_percentile": 89.0,
    "uncertainty": "Neither Illinois nor OpenAI disclosed this interpolation; it cannot be attributed as the launch method."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2018-290",
      "percentile": 85,
      "score": 290
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2018-300",
      "percentile": 90,
      "score": 300
    }
  ]
}

span-calculation-derive-illinois-feb-2018-298accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-feb-2018-298em:dossier-span:sha256:ba2cde38323123970a17e90771d1f6e21ad66d1ddfa53841749b93e1113694ea · sha256:3037e78d052c9ae7ef8fc027de340daa7e7a1e7488092ce8c1d4ab46cfe1762eem:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-illinois-feb-2018-anchorstotal-scale table, rows 300 and 290em:dossier-span:sha256:56a011a09e4e7dd05afbc0309c94d4dcfa1ecf1d6fd3df6a6a6f65204c7ccf03 · sha256:b3b8f789db7571a4fd8ed73e5380f2847aae920172722b9f6f51eec96c62e9ceem:dossier-edition:sha256:9be0e724fc35f74c96e635c6263f8f44ef804c3406c34b268bb710b24228a368 · sha256:44de7bd89cd4aeacee7b38d7077ff659e3baf552cb9b295401ec9b7229c04964em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Calculation · reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation: 88.6; equation="p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)"; comparison_population=null; depends_on=[].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-illinois-feb-2019-298 em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:eab848ea50c1f7403f46775de29a61ab145b1ef616b6ddedd1befaf47c47d626
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:5e417788588abd558e96b1e86a8abbf760107f1b2c5cf87ab39ef6533de01c6f
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:2c467a78217c9cfd8e1927f656d2c404085fc79f1544227ad10737e3c0e96bb4

{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-illinois-feb-2019-298",
    "equation": "p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-illinois-feb-2019-290",
      "cell-illinois-feb-2019-300"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-illinois-feb-2019-anchors"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "p290": 83.0,
      "p300": 90.0,
      "score": 298
    },
    "method": "reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation",
    "result_percentile": 88.6,
    "uncertainty": "Neither Illinois nor OpenAI disclosed this interpolation; it cannot be attributed as the launch method."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2019-290",
      "percentile": 83,
      "score": 290
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2019-300",
      "percentile": 90,
      "score": 300
    }
  ]
}

span-calculation-derive-illinois-feb-2019-298accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-feb-2019-298em:dossier-span:sha256:b16e9a841685191e39868f05b3b6e4ab6adbd109794b3af87845e3609e2bfa8d · sha256:76a57ca09947680e56c24258540370c4538e5e7d69931cb76882834e659fb1f2em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-illinois-feb-2019-anchorstotal-scale table, rows 300 and 290em:dossier-span:sha256:1e2736835309f364d7f8553b6e26a7c9802dce86c720c84fa2097f7e3a755ca3 · sha256:29f7ab38f7ff54e4576aa5b3c6fd310debd0520513f68fc3e21744af073923f8em:dossier-edition:sha256:2c2badc4c75c58ca49007bda1f0c1fcad4b301ecd060bc905bd8a741acd80925 · sha256:91185bd6263d73e5976b5b00f28fb9b62301be0bb0347b1d0a308c295f6a6151em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Calculation · reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation: 67.8; equation="p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)"; comparison_population=null; depends_on=[].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-illinois-jul-2018-298 em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:76480f3d580abb1b7f822049d98d9d71df986bb9468385f053bc736857135b09
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:16d42772ecd2e1cf09e10207fd84bcdd82413184a1ca7e0a6f71222759c24539
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:173e036ea146192840c20d9a90986e589e15e92a37c4018264f3dba905e58e4c

{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-illinois-jul-2018-298",
    "equation": "p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-illinois-jul-2018-290",
      "cell-illinois-jul-2018-300"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-illinois-jul-2018-anchors"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "p290": 59.0,
      "p300": 70.0,
      "score": 298
    },
    "method": "reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation",
    "result_percentile": 67.8,
    "uncertainty": "Neither Illinois nor OpenAI disclosed this interpolation; it cannot be attributed as the launch method."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-jul-2018-290",
      "percentile": 59,
      "score": 290
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-jul-2018-300",
      "percentile": 70,
      "score": 300
    }
  ]
}

span-calculation-derive-illinois-jul-2018-298accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-jul-2018-298em:dossier-span:sha256:88fbcd4b7b93f462ad98350235a550f2b34f2dbc1a811849f0f40dc7cb03ee18 · sha256:1e02e47e6e3f6a7c2422be3a698ecce3d17899aef055d0f47f2745ec043366f5em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-illinois-jul-2018-anchorstotal-scale table, rows 300 and 290em:dossier-span:sha256:3ec4b97842a7b34ea0a2857a50da7f6a02eb1556351c7ec727b2cccd2743637c · sha256:fe399dcc350821ac8ab546593931f1e34b24d811cad9062126e487a53783a783em:dossier-edition:sha256:2b720aa3b7368249b079f4bc7d3de383efc590510bc33e1ed88db133e9293237 · sha256:a9aa31983924ffec8d0e713ad29fc16a0e466557a57eba5061577afc4698bae6em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

05support

Under Martínez's modeled assumptions, 298 is approximately 62nd percentile among first-time takers.

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · §3.1, journal p. 588 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · §3.1, journal pp. 588-589 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · lines 104-112 First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022 · Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266 New York Bar Exam 2022 Statistics · FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022 Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents · total-scale table, rows 300 and 290 Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents · total-scale table, rows 300 and 290 Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents · total-scale table, rows 300 and 290 Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · footnote 5 First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022 · table note First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022 · NCBE MBE-based data, February and July 2022 totals Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · §4(d), Table 7 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · introduction, journal p. 584 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · lines 55-58 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · lines 166-168 The Testing Column: Why Are February Bar Exam Pass Rates Lower than July Pass Rates? · paragraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'

Trace this statement

Relation: relation-assertion-claim-martinez-first-time em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:9eab2effd3cc904155efeba8e0f0fcc8a1c651a180827275569eafefd16b4193
Proposition: claim-martinez-first-time em:dossier-proposition:sha256:fe66108f071fdcc1e63e50df325d22f059b385b733de0db6a9c2b4e8a3357474
Assertion: assertion-claim-martinez-first-time em:dossier-assertion:sha256:1e01cf8d95dfde4cf053070bfdcc291f54e0cc8280922b2f323d41cb231d213d
Lineage: lineage-martinez-analysis-root em:dossier-lineage:sha256:e6057f0dbfa37d0264e471e67a3941297a56467e67cad715d0eb37490d320cdd

Typed dependence

edge-benchmark-illinois-chartslineage-illinois-comparison-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:3bbbc190e0662f0d0cf22c4bf02a5abe6f9e71e95061afd3dc94f535c83fb57aaccepted_edge_id=edge-benchmark-illinois-charts; accepted_dimension=benchmark; from=lineage-illinois-comparison-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=It is comparison data, not an additional GPT-4 performance root. | Population drift affects rank without changing the model score. | It is a sensitivity input, not a replication of the model run.
edge-citation-katz-to-martinezlineage-model-performance-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:a8c16efd90634c0a152f0fdd7a0a02f8d844004ea05edec24ec4651bf00764ccaccepted_edge_id=edge-citation-katz-to-martinez; accepted_dimension=citation; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=Citation links the analysis lineage to the same reported score.
edge-comparison-class-first-time-passers--1lineage-ncbe-comparison-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:c26568911130747cbc372db3bcb7c6a64cecaa0134fb60ab0def98d7ceb621e4accepted_edge_id=edge-comparison-class-first-time-passers; accepted_dimension=comparison-class; from=lineage-ncbe-comparison-root,lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=Comparison populations are not interchangeable. | Administration mix can change percentile without new model evidence. | It parameterizes the comparison model rather than testing GPT-4. | The threshold defines a modeled comparator boundary.
edge-comparison-class-first-time-passers--2lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:0b7e8f83a90479b952cdbf35c12046e8810bf312a6f413158f9d4567bc45849baccepted_edge_id=edge-comparison-class-first-time-passers; accepted_dimension=comparison-class; from=lineage-ncbe-comparison-root,lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=Comparison populations are not interchangeable. | Administration mix can change percentile without new model evidence. | It parameterizes the comparison model rather than testing GPT-4. | The threshold defines a modeled comparator boundary.
edge-data-reported-score-reuselineage-model-performance-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:691d48bc190063d50b6e811c7455ec325b1f29bcc7452301694470e83211188aaccepted_edge_id=edge-data-reported-score-reuse; accepted_dimension=data; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=The re-analysis is not a new model-performance experiment. | Score validation changes warrant, not the participant or model-performance root count.
edge-derivation-comparison-inputs--1lineage-ncbe-comparison-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:8e1e29f851db71dfa10a5e236ce568d68a73d9c9dcc9e57be569669606ec66a7accepted_edge_id=edge-derivation-comparison-inputs; accepted_dimension=derivation; from=lineage-ncbe-comparison-root,lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=The value is a modeled input, not a GPT-4 observation. | Executable transformations do not create new source or performance roots.
edge-derivation-comparison-inputs--2lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:4cb023d071772f2c5de160eda970a23d215bd0e51de0ebef48513742b7b92ab4accepted_edge_id=edge-derivation-comparison-inputs; accepted_dimension=derivation; from=lineage-ncbe-comparison-root,lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=The value is a modeled input, not a GPT-4 observation. | Executable transformations do not create new source or performance roots.

Calculation · normal CDF at essay score 140 using assumed MBE distribution: 41.520892709392534; equation=null; comparison_population="modeled first-time essay scores"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-first-time-essay em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:13748298644aa578769bbabfff2cef7491504ee79bf1d180ece2b059135ed552
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:8b4297b5104a65c7f8bddf8b32ed22ff861e9c48bfd3f310cd2004f0422891a3
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:cd35ba2db639224fb309527b6345a677d99b6477c0af28d3b1780b3b760db33e

{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time essay scores",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-essay",
    "method": "normal CDF at essay score 140 using assumed MBE distribution",
    "result_percentile": 41.520892709392534
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-first-time-essayaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-essayem:dossier-span:sha256:7fe07e6a8c3bfc7145de80e008268fc0c0e4c52008cdcc2c56229e50818ae891 · sha256:a9c27ee78ab735acd0cc44a48abf93543d47b7e31106e8b749ad9acd73d94272em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Calculation · normal CDF at MBE score 158: 78.82324690739395; equation=null; comparison_population="modeled first-time MBE takers"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-first-time-mbe em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:e7b1110a59e6ed3c7a511c4e1e77aa7664a34e076f572963e8d3790a981334bc
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:added6c64552253aad1f336b1c4d88de6dd6172647d50fa5bddd3820feecf458
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:7df08eee7d48ee98980dc48dcd4257c04f6a03ee5db70b69f16762e4122880ff

{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time MBE takers",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-mbe",
    "method": "normal CDF at MBE score 158",
    "result_percentile": 78.82324690739395
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-first-time-mbeaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-mbeem:dossier-span:sha256:46a2e94c6b7fa7049cb7e26fb0def120ac9445a8bd95c1b21478c0db1e94424a · sha256:0222f9c217d52a28eaeb28caf33d560864fd14ba99c48d7ebd7fa0aa4fdba995em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Calculation · normal CDF at score 298: 61.60252541656707; equation="100 * Phi((298 - 287.6) / derived_ube_sd)"; comparison_population="modeled first-time UBE takers"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-first-time-ube em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:a2c43a47e3f6b92d24687c9aa8fc109e6c1395031b0d99748789cacc006a0718
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:e239947e9f182874d45854038dd31c8374fadebae4638ef0e25f91f286fe7202
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:a5fe847c3d60f4185c2335a2160eb3e8223fb2e1a8e2174b611efd1cc9f442d0

{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time UBE takers",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-ube",
    "equation": "100 * Phi((298 - 287.6) / derived_ube_sd)",
    "method": "normal CDF at score 298",
    "result_percentile": 61.60252541656707
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-first-time-ubeaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-ubeem:dossier-span:sha256:282eac343e251f80212871bfab6bbad216ef94e8989d5f56387cc19a79d72aca · sha256:95f5718ef7d21ae6fb0218ba919638f6bee7e0a849abfab1144857c83941d8c2em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Calculation · analytic reproduction of the executable OSF inputs: {"derived_ube_sd":35.24729455256271,"sample_mbe_sd":17.74327194332649,"z_at_0_27":-0.6128129910166272}; equation=null; comparison_population=null; depends_on=[].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-parameters em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:592ad3c88ad3d542736bb92ba9aeab1c3f375fd40d9688295eb6e8021a7d88e7
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:8a265341b3cca87de499aa7fe9807fcb85405a680c9899fb2844a96717923ac6
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:46b0fa65ec0a5d666de7e82ebfe7ea040c7bccf9d1862d67389fdc9ae6f6d6cb

{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-parameters",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-85",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-90",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-95",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-100",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-105",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-110",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-115",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-120",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-125",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-130",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-135",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-140",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-145",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-150",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-155",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-160",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-165",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-170",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-175",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-180",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-185",
      "cell-ncbe-ube-score-266",
      "cell-ny-first-timers-rate"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-reshetar-first-time-mean",
      "span-martinez-mean-assumption",
      "span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution",
      "span-martinez-script-ube-sd",
      "span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022",
      "span-ny-first-timers-2022"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "assumed_first_time_essay_mean": 143.8,
      "assumed_first_time_ube_mean": 287.6,
      "first_time_mbe_mean": 143.8,
      "july_mbe_binned_observations": 1002,
      "new_york_cutoff": 266.0,
      "new_york_nonpass_proportion": 0.27
    },
    "method": "analytic reproduction of the executable OSF inputs",
    "results": {
      "derived_ube_sd": 35.24729455256271,
      "sample_mbe_sd": 17.74327194332649,
      "z_at_0_27": -0.6128129910166272
    },
    "uncertainty": "The UBE distribution is inferred from aggregate inputs and normality; the essay mean/SD are assumed rather than observed."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-85",
      "count": 2,
      "score": 85
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-90",
      "count": 2,
      "score": 90
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-95",
      "count": 5,
      "score": 95
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-100",
      "count": 6,
      "score": 100
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-105",
      "count": 13,
      "score": 105
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-110",
      "count": 22,
      "score": 110
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-115",
      "count": 33,
      "score": 115
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-120",
      "count": 56,
      "score": 120
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-125",
      "count": 73,
      "score": 125
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-130",
      "count": 78,
      "score": 130
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-135",
      "count": 104,
      "score": 135
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-140",
      "count": 96,
      "score": 140
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-145",
      "count": 101,
      "score": 145
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-150",
      "count": 99,
      "score": 150
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-155",
      "count": 99,
      "score": 155
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-160",
      "count": 79,
      "score": 160
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-165",
      "count": 64,
      "score": 165
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-170",
      "count": 38,
      "score": 170
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-175",
      "count": 22,
      "score": 175
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-180",
      "count": 8,
      "score": 180
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-185",
      "count": 2,
      "score": 185
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-ncbe-ube-score-266",
      "column": "Score",
      "row": "266",
      "text": "266"
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-ny-first-timers-rate",
      "column": "Rate",
      "row": "ALL Candidates",
      "text": "73%"
    }
  ]
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-parametersaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-parametersem:dossier-span:sha256:b36533d6f13983fa968a987d5263ea1ab6220a87e2b416ab59a0c3d40ea03d09 · sha256:b92c0e5f9e2866c3806a45f478310c538513bb17644f78c91900edf5fc547d2eem:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Calculation · normal CDF conditional on modeled essay score >= 135: 15.252536216882072; equation=null; comparison_population="modeled essay scores at or above 135"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-passers-essay em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:ab1d937208a7dd4488c51004af267a03414306012ee327ecf10c05d0645a32b7
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:6c97aaa7a9bc70f03c07f91df685245b1a1278b97bb4e9bcf56f7e85861dda76
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:bfe2fd3438fb2f351efa67ef5066876074b428fd1fcd8b6c379070873fda676b

{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled essay scores at or above 135",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-essay",
    "method": "normal CDF conditional on modeled essay score >= 135",
    "result_percentile": 15.252536216882072
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-passers-essayaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-passers-essayem:dossier-span:sha256:75c94b1ed032d669e53b051fa98d8234be91d8062a23ee43147ac17553d9e5db · sha256:e28cf7118b36578f51acca1366d26808d9189b9b699ff2f8ce7c4b77bde9b468em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Calculation · normal CDF conditional on modeled MBE score >= 135: 69.31081545343784; equation=null; comparison_population="modeled MBE scores at or above 135"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-passers-mbe em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:1dd0e17278567855ddd02c50c7a61cc75f28fc83737928dcc68e610cce4ba6b2
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:c564ce54eb3b2d6f72781fee0e99f5162aec79993a6aa87f999d7b8d2775420e
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:837a7e443196825e489e5e7f7a09e74cdcd36ce65a43cf63c504a479c59da0a5

{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled MBE scores at or above 135",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-mbe",
    "method": "normal CDF conditional on modeled MBE score >= 135",
    "result_percentile": 69.31081545343784
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-passers-mbeaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-passers-mbeem:dossier-span:sha256:25dbcaa16173c2875dcab51c6fbd9210df50cf2aa03cb3e2514724edcc667200 · sha256:bc34a7eda1879f438d7e7945440d3db419371f000787488a1830b7c283f81845em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Calculation · normal CDF conditional on modeled UBE score >= 270: 44.45020553281165; equation="100 * (F(298) - F(270)) / (1 - F(270))"; comparison_population="modeled first-time scores at or above 270"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-passers-ube em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:20f088f009065cfc3380add119f1dd245d0cc60c26ce7304d2603d810dcceac5
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:9119f9ff62ea1e7760aabb53df19e6824e081aaab2d28ddac873b49ba1829c69
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:0e84c467e4cdeee807106e9fa021760a1a2e63bcd7fb41c4cfccea488558b23f

{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time scores at or above 270",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-ube",
    "equation": "100 * (F(298) - F(270)) / (1 - F(270))",
    "method": "normal CDF conditional on modeled UBE score >= 270",
    "result_percentile": 44.45020553281165,
    "uncertainty": "The script uses 270 for this filter after using New York's 266 cutoff to infer UBE SD."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-passers-ubeaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-passers-ubeem:dossier-span:sha256:3738518581952127b4be8dbb224e03a6eb3126a5ec5c685a837cba9e0d7bfcde · sha256:5cd325ee19d0d60ca21ed01dcf1cc3c6cfb1edfb2f9fb702d680f03a2ec1a8f3em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

06support

The Martínez version of record and code support roughly 45th under the encoded passers model, while its abstract and discussion say roughly 48th; the packet preserves 45/48 as an internal discrepancy.

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · discussion, journal p. 598 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · §3.2.2, journal p. 591 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · lines 166-168 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · Table 3, journal p. 591 Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents · total-scale table, rows 300 and 290 Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents · total-scale table, rows 300 and 290 Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents · total-scale table, rows 300 and 290 Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · footnote 5 First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022 · table note First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022 · Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266 First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022 · NCBE MBE-based data, February and July 2022 totals New York Bar Exam 2022 Statistics · FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022 Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam · §4(d), Table 7 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · introduction, journal p. 584 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · lines 55-58 percentile_analysis_new.Rmd · lines 104-112 The Testing Column: Why Are February Bar Exam Pass Rates Lower than July Pass Rates? · paragraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'

Trace this statement

Relation: relation-assertion-claim-martinez-passers-conflict em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:98f71b562a1c5d46cd4a56ad684083756ac580d2ecdc0c1db9cb1b0438094252
Proposition: claim-martinez-passers-conflict em:dossier-proposition:sha256:4c6ac4b24cbd908f89d988c4bb1dbc008e9ff3b5bb4fffaa313145d1762465ce
Assertion: assertion-claim-martinez-passers-conflict em:dossier-assertion:sha256:35a975b45cb9ebe6fed26d97fde109f534f7ce69613026271c16226ebf3c1182
Lineage: lineage-martinez-analysis-root em:dossier-lineage:sha256:e6057f0dbfa37d0264e471e67a3941297a56467e67cad715d0eb37490d320cdd

Typed dependence

edge-benchmark-illinois-chartslineage-illinois-comparison-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:3bbbc190e0662f0d0cf22c4bf02a5abe6f9e71e95061afd3dc94f535c83fb57aaccepted_edge_id=edge-benchmark-illinois-charts; accepted_dimension=benchmark; from=lineage-illinois-comparison-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=It is comparison data, not an additional GPT-4 performance root. | Population drift affects rank without changing the model score. | It is a sensitivity input, not a replication of the model run.
edge-citation-katz-to-martinezlineage-model-performance-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:a8c16efd90634c0a152f0fdd7a0a02f8d844004ea05edec24ec4651bf00764ccaccepted_edge_id=edge-citation-katz-to-martinez; accepted_dimension=citation; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=Citation links the analysis lineage to the same reported score.
edge-comparison-class-first-time-passers--1lineage-ncbe-comparison-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:c26568911130747cbc372db3bcb7c6a64cecaa0134fb60ab0def98d7ceb621e4accepted_edge_id=edge-comparison-class-first-time-passers; accepted_dimension=comparison-class; from=lineage-ncbe-comparison-root,lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=Comparison populations are not interchangeable. | Administration mix can change percentile without new model evidence. | It parameterizes the comparison model rather than testing GPT-4. | The threshold defines a modeled comparator boundary.
edge-comparison-class-first-time-passers--2lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:0b7e8f83a90479b952cdbf35c12046e8810bf312a6f413158f9d4567bc45849baccepted_edge_id=edge-comparison-class-first-time-passers; accepted_dimension=comparison-class; from=lineage-ncbe-comparison-root,lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=Comparison populations are not interchangeable. | Administration mix can change percentile without new model evidence. | It parameterizes the comparison model rather than testing GPT-4. | The threshold defines a modeled comparator boundary.
edge-data-reported-score-reuselineage-model-performance-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:691d48bc190063d50b6e811c7455ec325b1f29bcc7452301694470e83211188aaccepted_edge_id=edge-data-reported-score-reuse; accepted_dimension=data; from=lineage-model-performance-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=The re-analysis is not a new model-performance experiment. | Score validation changes warrant, not the participant or model-performance root count.
edge-derivation-comparison-inputs--1lineage-ncbe-comparison-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:8e1e29f851db71dfa10a5e236ce568d68a73d9c9dcc9e57be569669606ec66a7accepted_edge_id=edge-derivation-comparison-inputs; accepted_dimension=derivation; from=lineage-ncbe-comparison-root,lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=The value is a modeled input, not a GPT-4 observation. | Executable transformations do not create new source or performance roots.
edge-derivation-comparison-inputs--2lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root → lineage-martinez-analysis-rootem:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:4cb023d071772f2c5de160eda970a23d215bd0e51de0ebef48513742b7b92ab4accepted_edge_id=edge-derivation-comparison-inputs; accepted_dimension=derivation; from=lineage-ncbe-comparison-root,lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root; to=lineage-martinez-analysis-root; effects=The value is a modeled input, not a GPT-4 observation. | Executable transformations do not create new source or performance roots.

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-first-time-essay em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:13748298644aa578769bbabfff2cef7491504ee79bf1d180ece2b059135ed552
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:8b4297b5104a65c7f8bddf8b32ed22ff861e9c48bfd3f310cd2004f0422891a3
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:cd35ba2db639224fb309527b6345a677d99b6477c0af28d3b1780b3b760db33e

{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time essay scores",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-essay",
    "method": "normal CDF at essay score 140 using assumed MBE distribution",
    "result_percentile": 41.520892709392534
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-first-time-essayaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-essayem:dossier-span:sha256:7fe07e6a8c3bfc7145de80e008268fc0c0e4c52008cdcc2c56229e50818ae891 · sha256:a9c27ee78ab735acd0cc44a48abf93543d47b7e31106e8b749ad9acd73d94272em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Calculation · normal CDF at MBE score 158: 78.82324690739395; equation=null; comparison_population="modeled first-time MBE takers"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-first-time-mbe em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:e7b1110a59e6ed3c7a511c4e1e77aa7664a34e076f572963e8d3790a981334bc
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:added6c64552253aad1f336b1c4d88de6dd6172647d50fa5bddd3820feecf458
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:7df08eee7d48ee98980dc48dcd4257c04f6a03ee5db70b69f16762e4122880ff

{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time MBE takers",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-mbe",
    "method": "normal CDF at MBE score 158",
    "result_percentile": 78.82324690739395
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-first-time-mbeaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-mbeem:dossier-span:sha256:46a2e94c6b7fa7049cb7e26fb0def120ac9445a8bd95c1b21478c0db1e94424a · sha256:0222f9c217d52a28eaeb28caf33d560864fd14ba99c48d7ebd7fa0aa4fdba995em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-first-time-ube em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:a2c43a47e3f6b92d24687c9aa8fc109e6c1395031b0d99748789cacc006a0718
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:e239947e9f182874d45854038dd31c8374fadebae4638ef0e25f91f286fe7202
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:a5fe847c3d60f4185c2335a2160eb3e8223fb2e1a8e2174b611efd1cc9f442d0

{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time UBE takers",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-ube",
    "equation": "100 * Phi((298 - 287.6) / derived_ube_sd)",
    "method": "normal CDF at score 298",
    "result_percentile": 61.60252541656707
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-first-time-ubeaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-ubeem:dossier-span:sha256:282eac343e251f80212871bfab6bbad216ef94e8989d5f56387cc19a79d72aca · sha256:95f5718ef7d21ae6fb0218ba919638f6bee7e0a849abfab1144857c83941d8c2em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-parameters em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:592ad3c88ad3d542736bb92ba9aeab1c3f375fd40d9688295eb6e8021a7d88e7
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:8a265341b3cca87de499aa7fe9807fcb85405a680c9899fb2844a96717923ac6
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:46b0fa65ec0a5d666de7e82ebfe7ea040c7bccf9d1862d67389fdc9ae6f6d6cb

{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-parameters",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-85",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-90",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-95",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-100",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-105",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-110",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-115",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-120",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-125",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-130",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-135",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-140",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-145",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-150",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-155",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-160",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-165",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-170",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-175",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-180",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-185",
      "cell-ncbe-ube-score-266",
      "cell-ny-first-timers-rate"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-reshetar-first-time-mean",
      "span-martinez-mean-assumption",
      "span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution",
      "span-martinez-script-ube-sd",
      "span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022",
      "span-ny-first-timers-2022"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "assumed_first_time_essay_mean": 143.8,
      "assumed_first_time_ube_mean": 287.6,
      "first_time_mbe_mean": 143.8,
      "july_mbe_binned_observations": 1002,
      "new_york_cutoff": 266.0,
      "new_york_nonpass_proportion": 0.27
    },
    "method": "analytic reproduction of the executable OSF inputs",
    "results": {
      "derived_ube_sd": 35.24729455256271,
      "sample_mbe_sd": 17.74327194332649,
      "z_at_0_27": -0.6128129910166272
    },
    "uncertainty": "The UBE distribution is inferred from aggregate inputs and normality; the essay mean/SD are assumed rather than observed."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-85",
      "count": 2,
      "score": 85
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-90",
      "count": 2,
      "score": 90
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-95",
      "count": 5,
      "score": 95
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-100",
      "count": 6,
      "score": 100
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-105",
      "count": 13,
      "score": 105
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-110",
      "count": 22,
      "score": 110
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-115",
      "count": 33,
      "score": 115
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-120",
      "count": 56,
      "score": 120
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-125",
      "count": 73,
      "score": 125
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-130",
      "count": 78,
      "score": 130
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-135",
      "count": 104,
      "score": 135
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-140",
      "count": 96,
      "score": 140
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-145",
      "count": 101,
      "score": 145
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-150",
      "count": 99,
      "score": 150
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-155",
      "count": 99,
      "score": 155
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-160",
      "count": 79,
      "score": 160
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-165",
      "count": 64,
      "score": 165
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-170",
      "count": 38,
      "score": 170
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-175",
      "count": 22,
      "score": 175
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-180",
      "count": 8,
      "score": 180
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-185",
      "count": 2,
      "score": 185
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-ncbe-ube-score-266",
      "column": "Score",
      "row": "266",
      "text": "266"
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-ny-first-timers-rate",
      "column": "Rate",
      "row": "ALL Candidates",
      "text": "73%"
    }
  ]
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-parametersaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-parametersem:dossier-span:sha256:b36533d6f13983fa968a987d5263ea1ab6220a87e2b416ab59a0c3d40ea03d09 · sha256:b92c0e5f9e2866c3806a45f478310c538513bb17644f78c91900edf5fc547d2eem:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-passers-essay em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:ab1d937208a7dd4488c51004af267a03414306012ee327ecf10c05d0645a32b7
Proposition: em:dossier-proposition:sha256:6c97aaa7a9bc70f03c07f91df685245b1a1278b97bb4e9bcf56f7e85861dda76
Assertion: em:dossier-assertion:sha256:bfe2fd3438fb2f351efa67ef5066876074b428fd1fcd8b6c379070873fda676b

{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled essay scores at or above 135",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-essay",
    "method": "normal CDF conditional on modeled essay score >= 135",
    "result_percentile": 15.252536216882072
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}

span-calculation-derive-martinez-passers-essayaccepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-passers-essayem:dossier-span:sha256:75c94b1ed032d669e53b051fa98d8234be91d8062a23ee43147ac17553d9e5db · sha256:e28cf7118b36578f51acca1366d26808d9189b9b699ff2f8ce7c4b77bde9b468em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c · sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4bem:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831 · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-ube-sdlines 104-112em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83 · sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55bem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
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    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-mbe",
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    "result_percentile": 69.31081545343784
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Relation: relation-assertion-derive-martinez-passers-ube em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:20f088f009065cfc3380add119f1dd245d0cc60c26ce7304d2603d810dcceac5
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{
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    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time scores at or above 270",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-ube",
    "equation": "100 * (F(298) - F(270)) / (1 - F(270))",
    "method": "normal CDF conditional on modeled UBE score >= 270",
    "result_percentile": 44.45020553281165,
    "uncertainty": "The script uses 270 for this filter after using New York's 266 cutoff to infer UBE SD."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}

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span-martinez-mean-assumption§3.1, journal p. 588em:dossier-span:sha256:ecc711638dfc4b30115783c7b8d7f32b292b8c723a36f8dfbf421e41923b9461 · sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62dem:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667 · sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distributionlines 55-58em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38 · sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0cem:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745 · sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
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span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8 · sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653bem:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081 · sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-ny-first-timers-2022FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703 · sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f · sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74fem:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed
span-reshetar-first-time-meanparagraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520 · sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49 · sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12 · no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

36 exact passages · repeated display spans collapsed

This human register shows each exact accepted span once. The JSON, Markdown, relations, and ledgers retain every occurrence.

Used by evidence statement 01, 02

GPT-4 Technical Report

Table 1, PDF p. 5

Uniform Bar Exam (MBE+MEE+MPT) 298 / 400 (~90th)

Exact source identity

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License: arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed · arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed

Used by evidence statement 01, 02

GPT-4 Technical Report

Appendix A.1, PDF p. 23

The Uniform Bar Exam was run by our collaborators at CaseText and Stanford CodeX.

Exact source identity

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Used by evidence statement 01, 02, 05, 06

Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam

footnote 5

While we are not fully convinced of the methodological approach taken in some subsequent analysis [78], we do agree that it would be better to consider the raw 297 UBE as falling within a range between 68th and 90th percentile (depending on the precise state and timing of the exam administration).

Exact source identity

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Used by evidence statement 01, 02, 05, 06

Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam

§4(d), Table 7

{ "cells": [ { "cell_id": "cell-katz-gpt4-mbe", "column": "GPT-4", "row": "MBE", "text": "157 points" }, { "cell_id": "cell-katz-gpt4-mee", "column": "GPT-4", "row": "MEE", "text": "84 points" }, { "cell_id": "cell-katz-gpt4-mpt", "column": "GPT-4", "row": "MPT", "text": "56 points" }, { "cell_id": "cell-katz-gpt4-overall", "column": "GPT-4", "row": "overall score", "text": "297 points" } ], "format": "table-cell-transcription", "locator": "\u00a74(d), Table 7", "normalization": "exact-cell-text", "span_id": "span-katz-vor-components", "supports": "The version-of-record component scores sum to 297." }

Exact source identity

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Used by evidence statement 01, 02, 05, 06

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

introduction, journal p. 584

The paper successfully replicates the MBE score of 158, but highlights several methodological issues in the grading of the MPT + MEE components of the exam, which call into question the validity of the essay score (140).

Exact source identity

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Used by evidence statement 01, 02

Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam

§3(a), materials

{ "format": "exact-segments", "locator": "\u00a73(a), materials", "normalization": "collapse-whitespace", "segments": [ { "segment_id": "segment-katz-mee-mpt-materials", "text": "For the MEE and the MPT, we collected the most recently released questions from the July 2022 Bar Examination." }, { "segment_id": "segment-katz-mbe-materials", "text": "The MBE questions used in this study are official multistate bar examination questions from previous administrations of the UBE [65]." } ], "span_id": "span-katz-vor-materials", "supports": "The study components share disclosed exam-item materials and administration lineage." }

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Used by evidence statement 01, 02

GPT-4 Technical Report

Appendix A.3, PDF p. 24

we simply ran these free response questions each only a single time at our best-guess temperature (0.6) and prompt

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Used by evidence statement 01, 02

GPT-4 Technical Report

Appendix A.6, PDF p. 25

We ran GPT-4 multiple-choice questions using a model snapshot from March 1, 2023, whereas the free-response questions were run and scored using a non-final model snapshot from February 23, 2023.

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Used by evidence statement 01, 02

Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam

footnote 4

Best prompt and/or hyperparameter combination on the MBE would push this score to 298 or higher. Here, we report the MBE average of 75.7% which composites to a 297.

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Used by evidence statement 02

Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam

abstract

Graded across the UBE components, in the manner in which a human test-taker would be, GPT-4 scores approximately 297 points

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Used by evidence statement 03, 04, 05, 06

Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents

total-scale table, rows 300 and 290

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Used by evidence statement 03, 04, 05, 06

Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents

total-scale table, rows 300 and 290

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Used by evidence statement 03, 04, 05, 06

Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents

total-scale table, rows 300 and 290

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Used by evidence statement 03, 04

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-feb-2018-298

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License: Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions

Used by evidence statement 03, 04

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-feb-2019-298

{ "derivation": { "derivation_id": "derive-illinois-feb-2019-298", "equation": "p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)", "input_cell_ids": [ "cell-illinois-feb-2019-290", "cell-illinois-feb-2019-300" ], "input_span_ids": [ "span-illinois-feb-2019-anchors" ], "inputs": { "p290": 83.0, "p300": 90.0, "score": 298 }, "method": "reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation", "result_percentile": 88.6, "uncertainty": "Neither Illinois nor OpenAI disclosed this interpolation; it cannot be attributed as the launch method." }, "resolved_input_cells": [ { "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2019-290", "percentile": 83, "score": 290 }, { "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2019-300", "percentile": 90, "score": 300 } ] }

Exact source identity

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Used by evidence statement 03, 04

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-jul-2018-298

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

§3.1, journal p. 588

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Used by evidence statement 05

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

§3.1, journal pp. 588-589

Assuming that UBE scores (as well as MBE and essay subscores) are normally distributed, percentiles of GPT’s score can be directly computed after computing the parameters of these distributions (i.e. the mean and standard deviation).

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

lines 104-112

{ "format": "code-segment-transcription", "locator": "lines 104-112", "normalization": "exact-code-text", "segments": [ { "segment_id": "segment-martinez-code-mean", "text": "mean <- 287.6" }, { "segment_id": "segment-martinez-code-quantile", "text": "quantile_value <- 266" }, { "segment_id": "segment-martinez-code-percentile", "text": "percentile <- 0.27 # 24%" }, { "segment_id": "segment-martinez-code-z-score", "text": "z_score <- qnorm(percentile)" }, { "segment_id": "segment-martinez-code-ube-sd", "text": "sd_UBE <- (quantile_value - mean) / z_score" } ], "span_id": "span-martinez-script-ube-sd", "supports": "The script derives UBE standard deviation from mean 287.6, cutoff 266, and non-pass proportion 0.27." }

Exact source identity

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022

Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266

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Exact source identity

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

New York Bar Exam 2022 Statistics

FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022

{ "cells": [ { "cell_id": "cell-ny-first-timers-took", "column": "Took", "row": "ALL Candidates", "text": "9,457" }, { "cell_id": "cell-ny-first-timers-passed", "column": "Passed", "row": "ALL Candidates", "text": "6,867" }, { "cell_id": "cell-ny-first-timers-rate", "column": "Rate", "row": "ALL Candidates", "text": "73%" } ], "format": "table-cell-transcription", "locator": "FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022", "normalization": "exact-cell-text", "span_id": "span-ny-first-timers-2022", "supports": "The combined first-time pass rate was 73%, so the complementary non-pass proportion used by the re-analysis is 27%." }

Exact source identity

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022

table note

NOTE: First-time exam and repeat test taker data supplied by the jurisdictions in this chart are based on those examinees’ testing experience in the reporting jurisdiction only and do not account for possible previous attempts at the bar examination in other jurisdictions.

Exact source identity

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022

NCBE MBE-based data, February and July 2022 totals

{ "format": "exact-segments", "locator": "NCBE MBE-based data, February and July 2022 totals", "normalization": "collapse-whitespace", "segments": [ { "segment_id": "segment-ncbe-february-repeaters-count", "text": "February likely repeaters taking: 11,289" }, { "segment_id": "segment-ncbe-february-repeaters-percent", "text": "68% of February 2022 examinees were likely repeaters" }, { "segment_id": "segment-ncbe-february-first-timers-count", "text": "February likely first-timers taking: 5,215" }, { "segment_id": "segment-ncbe-february-first-timers-percent", "text": "32% of February 2022 examinees were likely first-time takers" }, { "segment_id": "segment-ncbe-july-repeaters-count", "text": "July likely repeaters taking: 10,200" }, { "segment_id": "segment-ncbe-july-repeaters-percent", "text": "23% of July 2022 examinees were likely repeaters" }, { "segment_id": "segment-ncbe-july-first-timers-count", "text": "July likely first-timers taking: 34,505" }, { "segment_id": "segment-ncbe-july-first-timers-percent", "text": "77% of July 2021 examinees were likely first-time takers" } ], "span_id": "span-ncbe-snapshot-composition", "supports": "February and July have materially different inferred first-time/repeater composition." }

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

lines 55-58

{ "cells": [ { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-85", "count": 2, "score": 85 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-90", "count": 2, "score": 90 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-95", "count": 5, "score": 95 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-100", "count": 6, "score": 100 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-105", "count": 13, "score": 105 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-110", "count": 22, "score": 110 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-115", "count": 33, "score": 115 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-120", "count": 56, "score": 120 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-125", "count": 73, "score": 125 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-130", "count": 78, "score": 130 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-135", "count": 104, "score": 135 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-140", "count": 96, "score": 140 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-145", "count": 101, "score": 145 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-150", "count": 99, "score": 150 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-155", "count": 99, "score": 155 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-160", "count": 79, "score": 160 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-165", "count": 64, "score": 165 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-170", "count": 38, "score": 170 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-175", "count": 22, "score": 175 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-180", "count": 8, "score": 180 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-185", "count": 2, "score": 185 } ], "code_lines": [ { "line_id": "line-martinez-july-distribution-55", "text": "July_distribution <- c(rep(85, 2), rep(90, 2), rep(95, 5), rep(100, 6), rep(105, 13)," }, { "line_id": "line-martinez-july-distribution-56", "text": " rep(110, 22), rep(115, 33), rep(120, 56), rep(125, 73), rep(130, 78)," }, { "line_id": "line-martinez-july-distribution-57", "text": " rep(135, 104), rep(140, 96), rep(145, 101), rep(150, 99), rep(155, 99)," }, { "line_id": "line-martinez-july-distribution-58", "text": " rep(160, 79), rep(165, 64), rep(170, 38), rep(175, 22), rep(180, 8), rep(185, 2))" } ], "format": "code-table-transcription", "locator": "lines 55-58", "normalization": "exact-code-text", "span_id": "span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution", "supports": "The executable analysis expands these 21 score-count cells to estimate the July MBE sample standard deviation." }

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

lines 166-168

{ "format": "code-segment-transcription", "locator": "lines 166-168", "normalization": "exact-code-text", "segments": [ { "segment_id": "segment-martinez-code-filter-ube", "text": "filtered_data_ube <- data_ube[data_ube >= 270]" }, { "segment_id": "segment-martinez-code-filter-mbe", "text": "filtered_data_mbe <- data_mbe[data_mbe >= 135]" }, { "segment_id": "segment-martinez-code-filter-essay", "text": "filtered_data_essay <- data_essay[data_essay >= 135]" } ], "span_id": "span-martinez-script-thresholds", "supports": "The passers analysis filters UBE at 270 even though the SD input uses New York's 266 cutoff." }

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

The Testing Column: Why Are February Bar Exam Pass Rates Lower than July Pass Rates?

paragraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'

The numbers from 2019, the last prepandemic year, are typical: all likely first-time test takers earned an average MBE score of 143.8. Likely repeaters, however, earned an average MBE score of 132.4.

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-essay

{ "derivation": { "comparison_population": "modeled first-time essay scores", "depends_on": [ "derive-martinez-parameters" ], "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-essay", "method": "normal CDF at essay score 140 using assumed MBE distribution", "result_percentile": 41.520892709392534 }, "resolved_input_cells": [] }

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-mbe

{ "derivation": { "comparison_population": "modeled first-time MBE takers", "depends_on": [ "derive-martinez-parameters" ], "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-mbe", "method": "normal CDF at MBE score 158", "result_percentile": 78.82324690739395 }, "resolved_input_cells": [] }

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-ube

{ "derivation": { "comparison_population": "modeled first-time UBE takers", "depends_on": [ "derive-martinez-parameters" ], "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-ube", "equation": "100 * Phi((298 - 287.6) / derived_ube_sd)", "method": "normal CDF at score 298", "result_percentile": 61.60252541656707 }, "resolved_input_cells": [] }

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-parameters

{ "derivation": { "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-parameters", "input_cell_ids": [ "cell-martinez-july-mbe-85", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-90", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-95", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-100", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-105", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-110", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-115", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-120", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-125", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-130", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-135", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-140", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-145", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-150", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-155", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-160", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-165", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-170", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-175", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-180", "cell-martinez-july-mbe-185", "cell-ncbe-ube-score-266", "cell-ny-first-timers-rate" ], "input_span_ids": [ "span-reshetar-first-time-mean", "span-martinez-mean-assumption", "span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution", "span-martinez-script-ube-sd", "span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022", "span-ny-first-timers-2022" ], "inputs": { "assumed_first_time_essay_mean": 143.8, "assumed_first_time_ube_mean": 287.6, "first_time_mbe_mean": 143.8, "july_mbe_binned_observations": 1002, "new_york_cutoff": 266.0, "new_york_nonpass_proportion": 0.27 }, "method": "analytic reproduction of the executable OSF inputs", "results": { "derived_ube_sd": 35.24729455256271, "sample_mbe_sd": 17.74327194332649, "z_at_0_27": -0.6128129910166272 }, "uncertainty": "The UBE distribution is inferred from aggregate inputs and normality; the essay mean/SD are assumed rather than observed." }, "resolved_input_cells": [ { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-85", "count": 2, "score": 85 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-90", "count": 2, "score": 90 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-95", "count": 5, "score": 95 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-100", "count": 6, "score": 100 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-105", "count": 13, "score": 105 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-110", "count": 22, "score": 110 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-115", "count": 33, "score": 115 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-120", "count": 56, "score": 120 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-125", "count": 73, "score": 125 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-130", "count": 78, "score": 130 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-135", "count": 104, "score": 135 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-140", "count": 96, "score": 140 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-145", "count": 101, "score": 145 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-150", "count": 99, "score": 150 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-155", "count": 99, "score": 155 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-160", "count": 79, "score": 160 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-165", "count": 64, "score": 165 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-170", "count": 38, "score": 170 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-175", "count": 22, "score": 175 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-180", "count": 8, "score": 180 }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-185", "count": 2, "score": 185 }, { "cell_id": "cell-ncbe-ube-score-266", "column": "Score", "row": "266", "text": "266" }, { "cell_id": "cell-ny-first-timers-rate", "column": "Rate", "row": "ALL Candidates", "text": "73%" } ] }

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-passers-essay

{ "derivation": { "comparison_population": "modeled essay scores at or above 135", "depends_on": [ "derive-martinez-parameters" ], "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-essay", "method": "normal CDF conditional on modeled essay score >= 135", "result_percentile": 15.252536216882072 }, "resolved_input_cells": [] }

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-passers-mbe

{ "derivation": { "comparison_population": "modeled MBE scores at or above 135", "depends_on": [ "derive-martinez-parameters" ], "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-mbe", "method": "normal CDF conditional on modeled MBE score >= 135", "result_percentile": 69.31081545343784 }, "resolved_input_cells": [] }

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Used by evidence statement 05, 06

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-passers-ube

{ "derivation": { "comparison_population": "modeled first-time scores at or above 270", "depends_on": [ "derive-martinez-parameters" ], "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-ube", "equation": "100 * (F(298) - F(270)) / (1 - F(270))", "method": "normal CDF conditional on modeled UBE score >= 270", "result_percentile": 44.45020553281165, "uncertainty": "The script uses 270 for this filter after using New York's 266 cutoff to infer UBE SD." }, "resolved_input_cells": [] }

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Used by evidence statement 06

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

discussion, journal p. 598

when examining only those who passed the exam, GPT-4’s performance is estimated to drop to ∼48th percentile overall, and ∼15th percentile on essays.

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Used by evidence statement 06

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

§3.2.2, journal p. 591

With regard to the aggregate UBE score, GPT-4 scored in the ∼45th percentile.

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Span digest: sha256:94dbb34cb0b30aefe6ad46a54298be28df4bf1014c3a0d389f63e4615b3dc9bf
Retrieval: Repository audit span; no external retrieval record
License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

Used by evidence statement 06

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

Table 3, journal p. 591

{ "cells": [ { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-ube", "column": "UBE", "row": "July test-takers", "text": "1st\u201368th" }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-first-timers-ube", "column": "UBE", "row": "All first-timers", "text": "2nd\u201362rd" }, { "cell_id": "cell-martinez-qualified-attorneys-ube", "column": "UBE", "row": "Qualified attorneys", "text": "0th\u201345th" } ], "format": "table-cell-transcription", "locator": "Table 3, journal p. 591", "normalization": "exact-cell-text", "span_id": "span-martinez-table-45", "supports": "The table reports 45th, not 48th, for the passers/qualified-attorneys comparison." }

Exact source identity

Work: em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b
Edition: em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667
Edition digest: sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5
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Retrieval: Repository audit span; no external retrieval record
License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

Verify every number

Complete count ledgers

Every displayed total is a view over these typed members; no total is maintained as marketing copy.

1 · Historical Model Run

Historical simulated-UBE model-performance root
Technical identity
Member
root-historical-simulated-ube-run
Object type
lineages
Object key
lineage-model-performance-root
Object ID
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Status
known
Dependence
data, method, model, social
Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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3 · Official Administration Sensitivities

Illinois February 2018 comparison root
Technical identity
Member
root-illinois-february-2018
Object type
lineages
Object key
lineage-illinois-comparison-root
Object ID
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Status
known
Dependence
data, source
Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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Illinois February 2019 comparison root
Technical identity
Member
root-illinois-february-2019
Object type
lineages
Object key
lineage-illinois-comparison-root
Object ID
em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a5b9820aa7d6c9062b89944f259392c039fbe5285b626d4f71d54dfd44f51a20
Status
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Dependence
data, source
Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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Illinois July 2018 comparison root
Technical identity
Member
root-illinois-july-2018
Object type
lineages
Object key
lineage-illinois-comparison-root
Object ID
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Status
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Dependence
data, source
Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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7 · Rooted Evidence Units

Historical model-performance root
Technical identity
Member
root-model-performance
Object type
lineages
Object key
lineage-model-performance-root
Object ID
em:dossier-lineage:sha256:c8b81e09b0245e5c5302dd89be2d627f7658d7ab0d5de6d56adef3df0f65e145
Status
known
Dependence
data, method, model, social
Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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Martinez modeled re-analysis root
Technical identity
Member
root-martinez-reanalysis
Object type
lineages
Object key
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Object ID
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Status
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Dependence
data, method, model, source
Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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Illinois February 2018 root
Technical identity
Member
root-illinois-feb-2018
Object type
lineages
Object key
lineage-illinois-comparison-root
Object ID
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Status
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Dependence
data, source
Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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Illinois February 2019 root
Technical identity
Member
root-illinois-feb-2019
Object type
lineages
Object key
lineage-illinois-comparison-root
Object ID
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Status
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Dependence
data, source
Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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Illinois July 2018 root
Technical identity
Member
root-illinois-jul-2018
Object type
lineages
Object key
lineage-illinois-comparison-root
Object ID
em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a5b9820aa7d6c9062b89944f259392c039fbe5285b626d4f71d54dfd44f51a20
Status
known
Dependence
data, source
Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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NCBE scoring and population aggregate root
Technical identity
Member
root-ncbe-aggregates
Object type
lineages
Object key
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Object ID
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Status
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Dependence
data, source
Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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New York first-time pass-rate root
Technical identity
Member
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Object type
lineages
Object key
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Object ID
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Status
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Dependence
data, source
Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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3 · Unresolved Boundaries

Launch comparison distribution is unspecified
Technical identity
Member
boundary-launch-comparator
Object type
assertions
Object key
assertion-claim-launch-comparison-unspecified
Object ID
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Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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Martinez 45th-versus-48th internal discrepancy
Technical identity
Member
boundary-45-48
Object type
assertions
Object key
assertion-claim-martinez-passers-conflict
Object ID
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Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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No practicing-lawyer comparison
Technical identity
Member
boundary-lawyer-quality
Object type
assertions
Object key
assertion-claim-no-lawyer-rank
Object ID
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Basis span
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Basis edition
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Basis work
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Five-line lexicon

The units are different on purpose

Comparison population: The people or scores against which a percentile is calculated.
Administration sensitivity: How the same score ranks under a different exam date and population.
Historical model run: One past evaluation setup, not a claim about a current product.
Modeled re-analysis: A calculation using disclosed assumptions and reused source values.
Boundary: A missing comparator, conflict, or scope limit that remains visible.

How the familiar claim changes under inspection

One historical simulated score

The percentile

Score plus comparator

The units count different things

What the selected record actually supports

Typed dependence

Typed dependence

Typed dependence

Typed dependence

Typed dependence

Typed dependence

GPT-4 Technical Report

GPT-4 Technical Report

Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam

Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam

GPT-4 Technical Report

GPT-4 Technical Report

Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam

Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam

Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents

Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents

Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022

New York Bar Exam 2022 Statistics

First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022

First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

The Testing Column: Why Are February Bar Exam Pass Rates Lower than July Pass Rates?

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

EM-0032 accepted calculation and input-cell register

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

percentile_analysis_new.Rmd

Complete count ledgers

The units are different on purpose

Reproduce this projection