Proposal

Source content

{

"calculations": [

{

"calculation_id": "calc-c13-abstract",

"depends_on": [],

"equation": "3896 / (3896 + 78 + 40) = 3896 / 4014 = 0.9706",

"inputs": [

{

"input_id": "endorse",

"json_pointer": "/table-3/endorse/count",

"name": "endorsing abstracts (categories 1-3)",

"origin": "source-span",

"source_id": "source-2",

"span_id": "span-c13-endorse",

"value": "3896"

},

{

"input_id": "reject",

"json_pointer": "/table-3/reject/count",

"name": "rejecting abstracts (categories 5-7)",

"origin": "source-span",

"source_id": "source-2",

"span_id": "span-c13-reject",

"value": "78"

},

{

"input_id": "uncertain",

"json_pointer": "/table-3/uncertain/count",

"name": "uncertain abstracts (category 4b)",

"origin": "source-span",

"source_id": "source-2",

"span_id": "span-c13-uncertain",

"value": "40"

}

],

"output": "97.1% (3896/4014)",

"uncertainty": "3896/4014 = 97.06%, rounding to the reported 97.1%."

},

{

"calculation_id": "calc-c13-self",

"depends_on": [],

"equation": "1342 / (1342 + 39) = 1342 / 1381 = 0.9718",

"inputs": [

{

"input_id": "endorse",

"json_pointer": "/table-4/endorse/count",

"name": "self-rated endorsing papers",

"origin": "source-span",

"source_id": "source-2",

"span_id": "span-c13-self-endorse",

"value": "1342"

},

{

"input_id": "reject",

"json_pointer": "/table-4/reject/count",

"name": "self-rated rejecting papers",

"origin": "source-span",

"source_id": "source-2",

"span_id": "span-c13-self-reject",

"value": "39"

}

],

"output": "97.2% (1342/1381)",

"uncertainty": "1342/1381 = 97.18%, rounding to the reported 97.2%."

},

{

"calculation_id": "calc-doran",

"depends_on": [],

"equation": "75 / 77 = 0.9740",

"inputs": [

{

"input_id": "yes",

"json_pointer": "/specialists/q2/yes",

"name": "specialists answering yes to question 2",

"origin": "source-span",

"source_id": "source-3",

"span_id": "span-doran-974",

"value": "75"

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{

"input_id": "answered",

"json_pointer": "/specialists/q2/answered",

"name": "specialists answering question 2",

"origin": "source-span",

"source_id": "source-3",

"span_id": "span-doran-974",

"value": "77"

}

],

"output": "97.4% (75/77)",

"uncertainty": "75/77 = 97.40%, matching the reported 97.4%."

},

{

"calculation_id": "calc-c16",

"depends_on": [],

"equation": "4014 / 11944 = 0.336068... (rounds to 0.3361, i.e. 33.6%)",

"inputs": [

{

"input_id": "position",

"json_pointer": "/restatement/position",

"name": "Cook-2013 abstracts taking a position",

"origin": "source-span",

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"origin": "source-span",

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"span_id": "span-c16-4014",

"value": "11944"

}

],

"output": "33.6% (4014/11944)",

"uncertainty": "4014/11944 = 0.336068..., which rounds to 0.3361 (33.6%); the fraction of abstracts taking a position."

}

],

"counterevidence": [

{

"claim": "Cook et al 2013's endorsement rate is a robust, method-independent consensus measure.",

"evidence": "Tol 2016 comments that Cook et al 2013 finds different results than previous studies and omits tests for systematic differences between raters.",

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"span-tol-crit"

],

"qualification": "An independent published comment (different author) on Cook 2013 specifically.",

"source_ids": [

"source-5"

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},

{

"claim": "Tol 2016's critique overturns the 97% consensus finding.",

"evidence": "Cook et al 2016 respond that Tol reaches a different conclusion using surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of rejecters.",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c16-tolresp"

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"qualification": "Cook et al 2016 shares lead author John Cook with Cook 2013, so it is corroboration, not independent confirmation.",

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}

],

"cutoff": "2026-08-31",

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"description": "The result depends on the Cook 2013 abstract, method, table, and the Cook 2016 restatement it cites.",

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],

"kind": "source",

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]

},

{

"dependency_id": "dep-c13a-counts",

"description": "The reproduced 97.1% depends on the Table 3 endorse, reject, and uncertain counts.",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c13-endorse",

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],

"kind": "data",

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},

{

"dependency_id": "dep-c13a-4014",

"description": "The 4014 position-taking denominator is corroborated by the Cook 2016 restatement (shared authorship, not independent).",

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"span-c16-4014"

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"kind": "derivation",

"source_ids": [

"source-4"

]

},

{

"dependency_id": "dep-c13s-evidence",

"description": "The result depends on the Cook 2013 self-rating method passage and Table 4 counts.",

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],

"kind": "source",

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]

},

{

"dependency_id": "dep-c13s-counts",

"description": "The reproduced 97.2% depends on the Table 4 endorse and reject counts.",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c13-self-endorse",

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],

"kind": "data",

"source_ids": [

"source-2"

]

},

{

"dependency_id": "dep-doran-evidence",

"description": "The result depends on the Doran survey method, specialist, question-2, result, overall, and date spans.",

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],

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},

{

"dependency_id": "dep-doran-counts",

"description": "The reproduced 97.4% depends on the specialist question-2 yes-rate (75 of 77).",

"exact_span_ids": [

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],

"kind": "data",

"source_ids": [

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},

{

"dependency_id": "dep-c16-evidence",

"description": "The result depends on the Cook 2016 restatement and synthesis spans and the population spans it compares.",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c13-rate",

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"span-c16-4014",

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"span-doran-974",

"span-doran-q2",

"span-doran-spec"

],

"kind": "source",

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"source-2",

"source-3",

"source-4"

]

},

{

"dependency_id": "dep-c16-calc",

"description": "The reproduced 33.6% depends on the Cook 2016 restatement of 4014 of 11 944.",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c16-4014"

],

"kind": "data",

"source_ids": [

"source-4"

]

},

{

"dependency_id": "dep-c16-comparison",

"description": "The population-and-quantity comparison depends on each study's measured quantity: Cook 2013 abstract-text endorsement, Cook 2013 author self-rating, Doran's question 2 and its 75-of-77 answer, and Cook 2016's reported range.",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c13-rate",

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],

"kind": "method",

"source_ids": [

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"source-3",

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]

}

],

"format": "epistemedia-research-proposal-v0.2",

"license": {

"bundle": "CC0-1.0",

"source_material": "Cook 2013, Cook 2016, and Tol 2016 are CC-BY-3.0; NASA content is a US-Government work but marked unassessed pending line-item check; Doran & Zimmerman 2009 is under AGU copyright and quoted minimally."

},

"limitations": [

"Directed successor authorized on PR #81 (digest 614b3cbb...); not an independent cold start - see lineage.shared_dependencies for the full exposure and intervention chain.",

"Each result's tool_and_retrieval_path records the study's own source-reported method (bound to a method span); the contributor's own retrieval route is recorded only in retrieval_attempts and the action trace.",

"The NASA carrier and Doran 2009 licenses are unassessed; their quotes are held under the tighter unknown-license length limit.",

"Cook 2013 and Cook 2016 share lead author John Cook and are not independent lineages; Cook 2016 is used only to corroborate the 4014 figure, to answer the cross-study comparison, and to record its own response to Tol.",

"The Tol 2014 Energy Policy re-analysis (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.04.045) was not retrieved (subscription-gated); Tol's critique is represented via the open-access ERL 2016 comment.",

"The 90-100% synthesis range is not reduced to a single reconciled cross-population figure; the reproduced Cook 2016 quantity is the 4014-of-11 944 position-taking fraction."

],

"lineage": {

"prompt_sha256": "sha256:614b3cbb2d0bcf96d94102f8378fd7e15badecac29f4a92800b619dc62133f34",

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"retrieval_environment": "public HTTPS via Internet Archive Wayback captures of NASA, IOP Publishing, and a UIC author-hosted copy",

"run_identity": "cold-start-climate-consensus-successor-6",

"shared_dependencies": [

"Directed successor to PR #76 through PR #81, all preserved needs-evidence receipts",

"Independent-review replies on PR #76 through PR #81",

"Owner directions on PR #76 through PR #81",

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"Causal notification digest e8450671fd05c0516f980f7af8e1ed63296b9a555edbfce2f81ba9feaac24b5e",

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"Causal notification digest b15a06f0c66b1a417dfefc9d72e85b8c9500007199efb1fd3684f4d4838e08e1",

"Causal notification digest 014ea10119167eadf092839212aa6b5bd63627ab8fe333bf8c047a8ea389aa95",

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"Cook 2013 and Cook 2016 share lead author John Cook - not independent lineage",

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]

},

"negative_results": [

{

"disposition": "Retained as a scope boundary; the carrier-to-single-study aggregation is unsupported and not asserted.",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-nasa-97",

"span-nasa-multi",

"span-nasa-cook13",

"span-nasa-cook16",

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],

"kind": "no-evidence-located",

"result": "The retrieved NASA carrier's reference list cites Cook 2013, Cook 2016, and Doran 2009 and presents an AAAS 'about 97%' statement plus a separate multiple-studies claim, but does not state that the 97% figure is an aggregate computed from those studies.",

"retrieval_attempt_ids": [

"attempt-1"

],

"scope": "The NASA carrier page only.",

"source_ids": [

"source-1"

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}

],

"question": "When public statements report that about 97% of scientists agree humans cause climate change, do the primary studies commonly associated with that figure - Cook et al 2013 abstract ratings, Doran and Zimmerman 2009's survey of scientists, and the Cook et al 2016 synthesis - measure the same population and quantity?",

"results": [

{

"calculation_ids": [

"calc-c13-abstract"

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"calculation_status": "reproduced",

"claim_atoms": [

{

"atom_id": "atom-1",

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],

"kind": "finding",

"source_ids": [

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "Cook et al 2013 report 97.1% endorsement among the 4014 abstracts that expressed a position on AGW (3896 endorsing), out of 11 944 abstracts examined, of which 66.4% expressed no position."

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-2",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c13-endorse"

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"kind": "finding",

"source_ids": [

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "3896 endorsing abstracts (Cook 2013 categories 1-3)"

},

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"atom_id": "atom-3",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c13-endorse",

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"kind": "finding",

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"status": "supported",

"text": "4014 abstracts expressing a position (3896 endorse, 78 reject, 40 uncertain)"

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"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "finding",

"source_ids": [

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"status": "supported",

"text": "97.1% endorsement among abstracts expressing a position"

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"exact_span_ids": [

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],

"kind": "comparison",

"source_ids": [

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"status": "supported",

"text": "66.4% of all abstracts expressed no position on AGW"

},

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"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "metadata",

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"status": "supported",

"text": "Cook et al 2013 abstract ratings"

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"exact_span_ids": [

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],

"kind": "boundary",

"source_ids": [

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"status": "supported",

"text": "11 944 climate abstracts from 1991-2011"

},

{

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"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "process",

"source_ids": [

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"status": "supported",

"text": "each abstract was categorized by two independent, anonymized raters"

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"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "date",

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"status": "supported",

"text": "abstracts published from 1991 to 2011"

},

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"atom_id": "atom-10",

"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "metadata",

"source_ids": [

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "positions expressed in abstract text among position-taking abstracts, not a poll of scientists"

}

],

"dependency_ids": [

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"interpretation": "The 97.1% describes the roughly one-third of abstracts that took a position; the 66.4% no-position share is silence, not disagreement.",

"proposition": "Cook et al 2013 report 97.1% endorsement among the 4014 abstracts that expressed a position on AGW (3896 endorsing), out of 11 944 abstracts examined, of which 66.4% expressed no position.",

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"comparison": "66.4% of all abstracts expressed no position on AGW",

"denominator": "4014 abstracts expressing a position (3896 endorse, 78 reject, 40 uncertain)",

"numerator": "3896 endorsing abstracts (Cook 2013 categories 1-3)",

"rate": "97.1% endorsement among abstracts expressing a position"

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"uncertainty": "Measures abstract text, not authors' full views; a distinct author self-rating phase is reported separately.",

"warrant": "The abstract and Table 3 give the rate, breakdown, and counts; Cook 2016 restates the 4014 position-taking figure (shared authorship, corroboration not independence)."

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"kind": "finding",

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "In Cook et al 2013's self-rating phase, after inviting authors to rate their own papers, 97.2% of self-rated papers expressing a position endorsed the consensus (1342 endorse, 39 reject) - a method distinct from abstract rating within the same study."

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-12",

"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "finding",

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"status": "supported",

"text": "1342 self-rated endorsing papers"

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"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c13-self-endorse",

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"kind": "finding",

"source_ids": [

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"status": "supported",

"text": "self-rated position-taking papers: 1342 endorse plus 39 reject"

},

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"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "finding",

"source_ids": [

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"status": "supported",

"text": "97.2% endorsement among self-rated position-taking papers"

},

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"exact_span_ids": [

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],

"kind": "comparison",

"source_ids": [

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "author self-ratings of full papers, distinct from abstract ratings"

},

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"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "metadata",

"source_ids": [

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "Cook et al 2013 author self-ratings"

},

{

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"exact_span_ids": [

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],

"kind": "boundary",

"source_ids": [

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "papers self-rated by their own authors"

},

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"exact_span_ids": [

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],

"kind": "process",

"source_ids": [

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "authors were invited to rate their own papers, compared with abstract ratings"

},

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"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "date",

"source_ids": [

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "papers published from 1991 to 2011"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-20",

"exact_span_ids": [

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],

"kind": "metadata",

"source_ids": [

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "authors rating their own full papers, not abstract text"

}

],

"dependency_ids": [

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"exact_span_ids": [

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"interpretation": "The self-rating phase is a second method within the same study (shared lineage), yielding a similar 97.2% among position-takers.",

"proposition": "In Cook et al 2013's self-rating phase, after inviting authors to rate their own papers, 97.2% of self-rated papers expressing a position endorsed the consensus (1342 endorse, 39 reject) - a method distinct from abstract rating within the same study.",

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"comparison": "author self-ratings of full papers, distinct from abstract ratings",

"denominator": "self-rated position-taking papers: 1342 endorse plus 39 reject",

"numerator": "1342 self-rated endorsing papers",

"rate": "97.2% endorsement among self-rated position-taking papers"

},

"result_id": "result-c13-self",

"scope": {

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"metric_scope": "authors rating their own full papers, not abstract text",

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],

"time": "papers published from 1991 to 2011",

"tool_and_retrieval_path": "authors were invited to rate their own papers, compared with abstract ratings"

},

"source_ids": [

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],

"uncertainty": "Same study, authors, and rating rubric as the abstract phase; not an independent replication.",

"warrant": "The abstract states the invitation to authors and the 97.2%, and Table 4 gives the endorse and reject counts."

},

{

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"calculation_status": "reproduced",

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],

"kind": "finding",

"source_ids": [

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "Doran and Zimmerman 2009 report that 97.4% of specialist climatologists (75 of 77) answered that human activity is a significant contributing factor, while only 82% of all 3146 respondents did - a surveyed-scientist population distinct from rated abstracts."

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-22",

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"kind": "finding",

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"status": "supported",

"text": "75 specialist climatologists answered yes to question 2"

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"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "finding",

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"status": "supported",

"text": "77 specialist climatologists answered question 2"

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"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "finding",

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "97.4% among surveyed specialist climatologists"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-25",

"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "comparison",

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],

"status": "supported",

"text": "82% of all 3146 respondents answered yes, versus 97.4% of specialists"

},

{

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"exact_span_ids": [

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"kind": "metadata",

"source_ids": [

"source-3"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "Doran & Zimmerman 2009 survey of specialist climatologists"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-27",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-doran-spec"

],

"kind": "boundary",

"source_ids": [

"source-3"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "79 specialists who publish more than 50% of recent papers on climate change"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-28",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-doran-method"

],

"kind": "process",

"source_ids": [

"source-3"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "an invitation to participate in the survey was sent to 10,257 Earth scientists"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-29",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-doran-date"

],

"kind": "date",

"source_ids": [

"source-3"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "published 20 January 2009"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-30",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-doran-q2"

],

"kind": "metadata",

"source_ids": [

"source-3"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "self-reported survey answers on human activity as a significant contributing factor"

}

],

"dependency_ids": [

"dep-doran-evidence",

"dep-doran-counts"

],

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-doran-974",

"span-doran-broad",

"span-doran-date",

"span-doran-method",

"span-doran-overall",

"span-doran-q2",

"span-doran-spec"

],

"interpretation": "Doran's is a direct survey of publishing specialists - the lineage closest to 'of scientists' - and agreement rises sharply with specialization (82% overall vs 97.4% specialists).",

"proposition": "Doran and Zimmerman 2009 report that 97.4% of specialist climatologists (75 of 77) answered that human activity is a significant contributing factor, while only 82% of all 3146 respondents did - a surveyed-scientist population distinct from rated abstracts.",

"reported_value": {

"comparison": "82% of all 3146 respondents answered yes, versus 97.4% of specialists",

"denominator": "77 specialist climatologists answered question 2",

"numerator": "75 specialist climatologists answered yes to question 2",

"rate": "97.4% among surveyed specialist climatologists"

},

"result_id": "result-doran",

"scope": {

"dataset_or_population": "79 specialists who publish more than 50% of recent papers on climate change",

"metric_scope": "self-reported survey answers on human activity as a significant contributing factor",

"models_or_agents": [

"Doran & Zimmerman 2009 survey of specialist climatologists"

],

"time": "published 20 January 2009",

"tool_and_retrieval_path": "an invitation to participate in the survey was sent to 10,257 Earth scientists"

},

"source_ids": [

"source-3"

],

"uncertainty": "Small specialist subsample (77 answering); the broad respondent group shows markedly lower agreement.",

"warrant": "The survey method, specialist definition, question 2 wording, the 75-of-77 result, and the 82%/3146 overall figures are all stated in the article."

},

{

"calculation_ids": [

"calc-c16"

],

"calculation_status": "reproduced",

"claim_atoms": [

{

"atom_id": "atom-31",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c16-4014",

"span-c16-method",

"span-c13-rate",

"span-c13-selfrate",

"span-doran-spec"

],

"kind": "finding",

"source_ids": [

"source-2",

"source-3",

"source-4"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "Cook et al 2016 restate that 4014 of the 11 944 Cook-2013 abstracts (33.6%) took a position, and report a 90-100% consensus range across six studies they describe as independent; the three frames audited here - Cook 2013 position-taking abstracts, Cook 2013 self-rated papers, and Doran's specialist subset - are different populations, not one."

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-32",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c16-4014"

],

"kind": "finding",

"source_ids": [

"source-4"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "4014 Cook-2013 abstracts took a position"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-33",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c16-4014"

],

"kind": "finding",

"source_ids": [

"source-4"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "11 944 Cook-2013 abstracts examined"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-34",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c16-4014"

],

"kind": "finding",

"source_ids": [

"source-4"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "33.6% of abstracts took a position (4014 of 11 944)"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-35",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c13-rate",

"span-c13-selfrate",

"span-c13-self-method",

"span-doran-q2",

"span-doran-974",

"span-c16-method"

],

"kind": "comparison",

"source_ids": [

"source-2",

"source-3",

"source-4"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "distinct populations and quantities: Cook 2013 abstract-text endorsement, Cook 2013 author self-rating of a paper, Doran survey answers on whether human activity is a significant contributing factor, and Cook 2016's reported 90-100% range across studies"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-36",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c16-method"

],

"kind": "metadata",

"source_ids": [

"source-4"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "Cook et al 2016 synthesis"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-37",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c16-method"

],

"kind": "boundary",

"source_ids": [

"source-4"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "six consensus studies that Cook et al describe as independent"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-38",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c16-method"

],

"kind": "process",

"source_ids": [

"source-4"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "a synthesis of six studies that Cook et al describe as independent, by co-authors of the paper"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-39",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c16-date"

],

"kind": "date",

"source_ids": [

"source-4"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "published in 2016 (Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 048002)"

},

{

"atom_id": "atom-40",

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c16-method"

],

"kind": "metadata",

"source_ids": [

"source-4"

],

"status": "supported",

"text": "a synthesis reporting a 90-100% range across studies described as independent"

}

],

"dependency_ids": [

"dep-c16-evidence",

"dep-c16-calc",

"dep-c16-comparison"

],

"exact_span_ids": [

"span-c13-rate",

"span-c13-self-method",

"span-c13-selfrate",

"span-c16-4014",

"span-c16-date",

"span-c16-method",

"span-doran-974",

"span-doran-q2",

"span-doran-spec"

],

"interpretation": "Directly answering both dimensions of the question. Population/frame: the audited frames are distinct - Cook 2013 position-taking abstracts, Cook 2013 authors who self-rated papers, and Doran surveyed specialists (with the 82% broader result retained). Measured quantity: they measure distinct quantities - abstract-text endorsement, author self-rating of a paper's position, and survey answers on whether human activity is a significant contributing factor. Cook 2016 additionally reports a 90-100% range across six studies it describes as independent (a synthesis with overlapping authorship), not reduced to a single figure here.",

"proposition": "Cook et al 2016 restate that 4014 of the 11 944 Cook-2013 abstracts (33.6%) took a position, and report a 90-100% consensus range across six studies they describe as independent; the three frames audited here - Cook 2013 position-taking abstracts, Cook 2013 self-rated papers, and Doran's specialist subset - are different populations, not one.",

"reported_value": {

"comparison": "distinct populations and quantities: Cook 2013 abstract-text endorsement, Cook 2013 author self-rating of a paper, Doran survey answers on whether human activity is a significant contributing factor, and Cook 2016's reported 90-100% range across studies",

"denominator": "11 944 Cook-2013 abstracts examined",

"numerator": "4014 Cook-2013 abstracts took a position",

"rate": "33.6% of abstracts took a position (4014 of 11 944)"

},

"result_id": "result-c16",

"scope": {

"dataset_or_population": "six consensus studies that Cook et al describe as independent",

"metric_scope": "a synthesis reporting a 90-100% range across studies described as independent",

"models_or_agents": [

"Cook et al 2016 synthesis"

],

"time": "published in 2016 (Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 048002)",

"tool_and_retrieval_path": "a synthesis of six studies that Cook et al describe as independent, by co-authors of the paper"

},

"source_ids": [

"source-2",

"source-3",

"source-4"

],

"uncertainty": "Cook 2016 shares lead author John Cook with Cook 2013; the 90-100% range is not reduced to a single cross-population figure here.",

"warrant": "Cook 2016 states the 4014-of-11 944 restatement and a 90-100% range across six studies it describes as independent; the three population spans define distinct frames."

}

],

"retrieval_attempts": [

{

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"transport": "https",

"url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260829043914id_/https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/scientific-consensus/"

},

{

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"failure_code": "none",

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"transport": "https",

"url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260814202631id_/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024/pdf"

},

{

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"failure_code": "none",

"outcome": "retrieved",

"source_id": "source-3",

"transport": "https",

"url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20151104071444id_/http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf"

},

{

"artifact_sha256": "a7af1291b7f9125f4b63b2d98e07cecf450801b1c04cf1d47ff1ea6e5237f963",

"attempt_id": "attempt-4",

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"failure_code": "none",

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"source_id": "source-4",

"transport": "https",

"url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260816144738id_/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002/pdf"

},

{

"artifact_sha256": "9011f78ea25bcbe512b0df8b2fb1844d113656c3c032b8b0396274cd80790ffe",

"attempt_id": "attempt-5",

"attempted_at": "2026-08-31T11:00:44Z",

"failure_code": "none",

"outcome": "retrieved",

"source_id": "source-5",

"transport": "https",

"url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824083717id_/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048001/pdf"

}

],

"runtime": {

"agent": "claude-opus-cold-start",

"completed_at": "2026-08-31T11:03:09Z",

"started_at": "2026-08-31T11:00:43Z",

"toolchain": [

"curl HTTPS retrieval",

"pdftotext text extraction",

"epistemedia research validator"

]

},

"scope": {

"comparison_target": "Whether the primary studies associated with the public 'about 97%' figure measure the same population and quantity.",

"excluded": "The truth of anthropogenic warming itself, sources not retrieved (e.g. the Tol 2014 Energy Policy re-analysis), and public statements other than the NASA carrier.",

"included": "Five public primary sources - the NASA consensus carrier, Cook et al 2013, Doran & Zimmerman 2009, Cook et al 2016, and Tol 2016 - and the exact figures, methods, and populations they report."

},

"search_notes": [

"Prior art: PR #76 through PR #81 are preserved needs-evidence receipts for earlier versions of this audit; this successor closes their review gaps. None of the accepted dossiers concern the climate-consensus statistic.",

"All five sources retrieved as byte-stable Internet Archive Wayback id_ captures so each artifact SHA-256 is independently reproducible; publisher-live PDFs and HTML return per-request bytes with unstable hashes."

],

"sources": [

{

"creators_or_org": "U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration",

"date": "2022-06-15",

"edition": "Web page (published 2022-06-15, updated 2024-10-21), Internet Archive Wayback capture 20260829043914",

"exact_spans": [

{

"locator": "Scientific consensus, opening paragraph",

"quote": "multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals",

"span_id": "span-nasa-multi",

"supports": "NASA cites multiple studies, not one."

},

{

"locator": "Statements from scientific organizations (AAAS, 2014)",

"quote": "about 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening.",

"span_id": "span-nasa-97",

"supports": "The '~97%' figure NASA carries via an AAAS statement."

},

{

"locator": "References list",

"quote": "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature",

"span_id": "span-nasa-cook13",

"supports": "NASA's reference list cites Cook et al 2013."

},

{

"locator": "References list",

"quote": "Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming",

"span_id": "span-nasa-cook16",

"supports": "NASA's reference list cites Cook et al 2016."

},

{

"locator": "References list",

"quote": "Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change",

"span_id": "span-nasa-doran",

"supports": "NASA's reference list cites Doran & Zimmerman 2009."

}

],

"identifier": "nasa:climate-change/scientific-consensus",

"license": {

"basis_span_id": "none",

"identifier": "unassessed",

"status": "unassessed"

},

"media_type": "text/html",

"retrieval_status": "retrieved",

"source_id": "source-1",

"title": "NASA Global Climate Change - Scientific Consensus",

"url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260829043914id_/https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/scientific-consensus/"

},

{

"creators_or_org": "Cook, Nuccitelli, Green, Richardson, Winkler, Painting, Way, Jacobs, Skuce (Environmental Research Letters)",

"date": "2013-05-15",

"edition": "Version of record (PDF), Internet Archive Wayback capture 20260814202631",

"exact_spans": [

{

"locator": "Abstract",

"quote": "Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.",

"span_id": "span-c13-rate",

"supports": "Cook 2013's 97.1% is conditioned on position-expressing abstracts."

},

{

"locator": "Abstract",

"quote": "We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming.",

"span_id": "span-c13-breakdown",

"supports": "The endorse/reject/uncertain/no-position breakdown."

},

{

"locator": "Abstract",

"quote": "examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991-2011",

"span_id": "span-c13-sample",

"supports": "Population and time window of the abstract sample."

},

{

"locator": "Methods, abstract rating",

"quote": "Each abstract was categorized by two independent, anonymized raters.",

"span_id": "span-c13-method",

"supports": "The abstract-rating method."

},

{

"locator": "Table 3, Endorse AGW row",

"quote": "32.6% (3896)",

"span_id": "span-c13-endorse",

"supports": "Count of endorsing abstracts (3896)."

},

{

"locator": "Table 3, Reject AGW row",

"quote": "0.7% (78)",

"span_id": "span-c13-reject",

"supports": "Count of rejecting abstracts (78)."

},

{

"locator": "Table 3, Uncertain on AGW row",

"quote": "0.3% (40)",

"span_id": "span-c13-uncertain",

"supports": "Count of uncertain abstracts (40)."

},

{

"locator": "Abstract",

"quote": "Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus.",

"span_id": "span-c13-selfrate",

"supports": "The author self-rating endorsement rate (97.2%)."

},

{

"locator": "Abstract",

"quote": "we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings",

"span_id": "span-c13-self-method",

"supports": "The self-rating method: authors rated their own papers, compared with abstract ratings."

},

{

"locator": "Table 4, Endorse AGW row",

"quote": "62.7% (1342)",

"span_id": "span-c13-self-endorse",

"supports": "Count of self-rated endorsing papers (1342)."

},

{

"locator": "Table 4, Reject AGW row",

"quote": "1.8% (39)",

"span_id": "span-c13-self-reject",

"supports": "Count of self-rated rejecting papers (39)."

},

{

"locator": "Page 1 footer, licence statement",

"quote": "Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence",

"span_id": "span-c13-license",

"supports": "Cook 2013 licence identity (CC-BY-3.0)."

}

],

"identifier": "doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024",

"license": {

"basis_span_id": "span-c13-license",

"identifier": "CC-BY-3.0",

"status": "known"

},

"media_type": "application/pdf",

"retrieval_status": "retrieved",

"source_id": "source-2",

"title": "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature",

"url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260814202631id_/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024/pdf"

},

{

"creators_or_org": "P. T. Doran & M. K. Zimmerman (Eos, Transactions AGU 90(3))",

"date": "2009-01-20",

"edition": "Author-hosted PDF (UIC), Internet Archive Wayback capture 20151104071444",

"exact_spans": [

{

"locator": "Results, specialist definition",

"quote": "published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change (79 individuals in total)",

"span_id": "span-doran-spec",

"supports": "Defines the surveyed specialist-climatologist population (79)."

},

{

"locator": "Survey question 2",

"quote": "human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures",

"span_id": "span-doran-q2",

"supports": "Question 2: human activity as a significant contributing factor."

},

{

"locator": "Methods, survey design",

"quote": "An invitation to participate in the survey was sent to 10,257 Earth scientists",

"span_id": "span-doran-method",

"supports": "The survey method: a web-based survey of Earth scientists."

},

{

"locator": "Results, specialists, question 2",

"quote": "97.4% (75 of 77)",

"span_id": "span-doran-974",

"supports": "97.4% of specialists answered yes to question 2."

},

{

"locator": "Results, overall",

"quote": "82% answered yes to question 2",

"span_id": "span-doran-overall",

"supports": "Only 82% of all respondents answered yes."

},

{

"locator": "Results, overall",

"quote": "With 3146 individuals completing the survey",

"span_id": "span-doran-broad",

"supports": "The broader respondent group (3146)."

},

{

"locator": "Page header",

"quote": "VOLUME 90 NUMBER 3 20 JANUARY 2009",

"span_id": "span-doran-date",

"supports": "Publication date of the Eos article."

}

],

"identifier": "doi:10.1029/2009EO030002",

"license": {

"basis_span_id": "none",

"identifier": "unassessed",

"status": "unassessed"

},

"media_type": "application/pdf",

"retrieval_status": "retrieved",

"source_id": "source-3",

"title": "Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change",

"url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20151104071444id_/http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf"

},

{

"creators_or_org": "Cook, Oreskes, Doran, Anderegg, Verheggen, Maibach, Carlton, Lewandowsky, Skuce, Green, Nuccitelli, Winkler, Painting, Rice (Environmental Research Letters)",

"date": "2016-04-13",

"edition": "Version of record (PDF), Internet Archive Wayback capture 20260816144738",

"exact_spans": [

{

"locator": "Abstract",

"quote": "consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position",

"span_id": "span-c16-4014",

"supports": "Cook 2016 restates that 4014 of 11 944 Cook-2013 abstracts took a position (shared authorship, not independent)."

},

{

"locator": "Abstract",

"quote": "The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%-100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper.",

"span_id": "span-c16-method",

"supports": "The synthesis method and range: Cook et al synthesize six studies they describe as independent."

},

{

"locator": "Page header",

"quote": "Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 048002",

"span_id": "span-c16-date",

"supports": "Publication year of the synthesis (2016)."

},

{

"locator": "Abstract",

"quote": "Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus.",

"span_id": "span-c16-tolresp",

"supports": "Cook 2016's response to Tol 2016."

},

{

"locator": "Article footer, licence statement",

"quote": "Commons Attribution 3.0",

"span_id": "span-c16-license",

"supports": "Cook 2016 licence identity (CC-BY-3.0)."

}

],

"identifier": "doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002",

"license": {

"basis_span_id": "span-c16-license",

"identifier": "CC-BY-3.0",

"status": "known"

},

"media_type": "application/pdf",

"retrieval_status": "retrieved",

"source_id": "source-4",

"title": "Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming",

"url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260816144738id_/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002/pdf"

},

{

"creators_or_org": "Richard S J Tol (Environmental Research Letters)",

"date": "2016-04-13",

"edition": "Version of record (PDF), Internet Archive Wayback capture 20260824083717",

"exact_spans": [

{

"locator": "Abstract",

"quote": "different results than previous studies in the consensus literature. It omits tests for systematic differences between raters.",

"span_id": "span-tol-crit",

"supports": "Tol 2016 contests Cook 2013's method and comparability."

},

{

"locator": "Article footer, licence statement",

"quote": "Commons Attribution 3.0",

"span_id": "span-tol-license",

"supports": "Tol 2016 licence identity (CC-BY-3.0)."

}

],

"identifier": "doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048001",

"license": {

"basis_span_id": "span-tol-license",

"identifier": "CC-BY-3.0",

"status": "known"

},

"media_type": "application/pdf",

"retrieval_status": "retrieved",

"source_id": "source-5",

"title": "Comment on 'Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature'",

"url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824083717id_/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048001/pdf"

}

],

"status": "ready-for-review",

"unresolved": [

"Whether any specific viral restatement of '97%' cites Cook 2013, Doran 2009, or the NASA statement is not resolved by these five sources.",

"A single reconciled cross-population consensus figure is not derivable from these sources and is not claimed."

]

}