Preliminary readiness for the next How We Know cases

Source content

Preliminary readiness for the next How We Know cases

Status: accepted source-readiness synthesis. Exact-head reviewed and admitted through protected

PR #50 at cbb029bd336404e5bc654e939308247317eaa153; none of these three candidates was admitted as

a dossier or public case by EM-0027.

Three candidate directions were checked independently against primary or authoritative source

identity, access, licensing, proposition scope, likely lineage, active dispute, and review cost.

They remain separate research packets; their sources and provisional dispositions must not be

combined into one evidence count.

The source-readiness result is HOLD for all three candidates, for different reasons:

• GPT-4 bar-exam percentile: the model report, score study, re-analysis, and comparison

sources are identifiable, but the at-launch percentile chart, interpolation, and comparison

population are not closed.

• Mehrabian 7–38–55: the two 1967 work identities, narrow attitude-inference experiments,

later author qualification, and cross-study proposal are traceable, but lawful stable primary

access, the origin of the 7% coefficient, and book/material edition closure remain open.

• Fact-check effectiveness: the four-country experiment and public replication deposit are

identifiable, but the corrected meta-analysis lineage, reply/reanalysis artifacts,

behavior-versus-belief boundary, and overlap with Case 001 must be closed before a case can be

scoped honestly.

Each later research contract must therefore record:

1. whether the original and corrective source editions can be retrieved without credentials;

2. what proposition each source actually reports versus the proposition in circulation;

3. which papers reuse the same data, derivation, author program, or comparison frame;

4. which source, license, edition, or counterevidence gaps still block a dossier; and

5. a fresh go, hold, or fail based on source closure and machinery value rather than

perceived importance.

These are retrieval and review gates, not findings about whether the circulated claims are true.

No candidate has been selected, admitted, featured, or published by this mapping.

Detailed source ledgers live under

research/how-we-know/library-preliminary/.

The accepted packet bytes and all three HOLD dispositions remain unchanged. EM-0032 and

EM-0033 now authorize separate closure research for the GPT-4 and Mehrabian candidates.