# Candidate Packet

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- Kind: `research-note`
- Repository path: [`research/how-we-know/gpt-4-bar-exam-percentile/candidate-packet.json`](https://github.com/yoheinakajima/epistemedia/blob/f92846570180dfa4511263f8ba98ecd18f7772c9/research/how-we-know/gpt-4-bar-exam-percentile/candidate-packet.json)
- Content digest: `07dec44bc2cf893b19ba6307e34aef60b6127b5e881e319ff4132c8e69972d1a`

**Also filed under:** [Research Program](https://epistemedia.org/topics/research-program/)

## Source content

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        "The exact launch chart, UBE comparison population, and interpolation remain unknown and receive no inferred value.",
        "No official national July 2022 total-UBE score distribution was captured.",
        "Purchased exam questions, proprietary model snapshots, official essay grading, and a complete rerun remain unavailable or unauthorized.",
        "The OSF node is private with an anonymous view-only capability and has no confirmed license.",
        "The pinned Katz repository has no confirmed license and does not redistribute the purchased MBE exam.",
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              "finding": "February and July populations have materially different inferred first-time and repeater composition.",
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              "finding": "The official table places New York in the 266 minimum-score row.",
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            },
            {
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        "scope": "Proceed to a later candidate dossier about a real historical score whose percentile is comparison-class-dependent and whose launch derivation remains unresolved."
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          "published": "2023-03-15",
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            {
              "locator": "Appendix A.6, PDF p. 25",
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              "span_id": "span-openai-v1-snapshots",
              "supports": "The reported composite used two historical model snapshots rather than a stable current product identity."
            },
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              "format": "exact-contiguous-text",
              "locator": "Appendix A.1, PDF p. 23",
              "normalization": "collapse-whitespace",
              "quote": "The Uniform Bar Exam was run by our collaborators at CaseText and Stanford CodeX.",
              "span_id": "span-openai-v1-collaborators",
              "supports": "The launch report declares author-social collaboration rather than an independent vendor-versus-study replication."
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              "locator": "Appendix A.3, PDF p. 24",
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              "supports": "The free-response component was a single best-guess run, not a repeated performance estimate."
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          ],
          "title": "GPT-4 Technical Report",
          "treatment": "link and quote minimally; do not redistribute the PDF",
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                {
                  "segment_id": "segment-martinez-code-filter-ube",
                  "text": "filtered_data_ube <- data_ube[data_ube >= 270]"
                },
                {
                  "segment_id": "segment-martinez-code-filter-mbe",
                  "text": "filtered_data_mbe <- data_mbe[data_mbe >= 135]"
                },
                {
                  "segment_id": "segment-martinez-code-filter-essay",
                  "text": "filtered_data_essay <- data_essay[data_essay >= 135]"
                }
              ],
              "span_id": "span-martinez-script-thresholds",
              "supports": "The passers analysis filters UBE at 270 even though the SD input uses New York's 266 cutoff."
            }
          ],
          "title": "percentile_analysis_new.Rmd",
          "treatment": "quote-minimal code readback only; do not redistribute the full file",
          "url": "https://osf.io/download/gujmp/?view_only=dcc617accc464491922b77414867a066",
          "work_id": "work-martinez-reanalysis"
        }
      ],
      "target_question": "How did a historical simulated UBE score reported for GPT-4 become a roughly 90th-percentile claim, and how does the rank change when the comparison population changes?",
      "task_id": "EM-0032"
    },
    "target_question": "How did a historical simulated UBE score reported for GPT-4 become a roughly 90th-percentile claim, and how does the rank change when the comparison population changes?",
    "task_id": "EM-0032"
  },
  "packet_id": "em:research-packet:sha256:535d07e59563b12f66e590c31b0d53a21db1a8dfce1487129a54c5e86b9fd55b"
}