# Case 003 — What GPT-4's 90th-percentile bar-exam claim compared

How did a historical simulated UBE score reported for GPT-4 become a roughly 90th-percentile claim, and how does the rank change when the comparison population changes?

**Skeptical finding:** withhold general 90th-percentile and lawyer-quality claims

**Practical reading:** Do not repeat '90th percentile' without its missing comparison distribution, and do not translate the result into lawyer quality.

Official-chart sensitivities and the modeled re-analysis answer narrower questions and are not current product rankings.

## Evidence accounting

- [1 historical model run](#historical-model-runs): Report, paper, repository, and supplement share one experiment
- [3 official administration sensitivities](#administration-sensitivities): The same score ranks differently across official Illinois charts
- [7 rooted evidence units](#independent-evidence-roots): Seven units after editions and reused score inputs are collapsed
- [3 unresolved boundaries](#unresolved-boundaries): Visible limits receive no invented value or broader interpretation

**Dependence warning:** The report, research paper, repository, and supplements are manifestations of one historical model run; the Martinez analysis reuses that score and aggregate comparison data.

## What the selected record says

### Support

The launch report says test takers but does not disclose a UBE administration, jurisdiction, population composition, chart, or interpolation for the displayed percentile.

- Relation: `relation-assertion-claim-launch-comparison-unspecified` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:affd0ea72f66e971c487ac561d1d99587c411a4aade9a9e4908ea32f842f20c5`
- Proposition: `claim-launch-comparison-unspecified` · `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:0e95785a0aeb86c6b85771df4f9717da9521e2f9e5d52d608e451465e1240d2f`
- Assertion: `assertion-claim-launch-comparison-unspecified` · `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:e5b09f98417934e590aa916b7e5c657dc707fb55ab33c81d87a6a724d48fc159`
- Lineage: `lineage-model-performance-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:c8b81e09b0245e5c5302dd89be2d627f7658d7ab0d5de6d56adef3df0f65e145`
- Dependence: `edge-author-social-collaboration` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:b616095462050178a4dedd71e5ad524effaa71d20808eceb206d203f9aae8204` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-model-performance-root`
- Dependence: `edge-citation-katz-to-martinez` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:a8c16efd90634c0a152f0fdd7a0a02f8d844004ea05edec24ec4651bf00764cc` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`
- Dependence: `edge-data-reported-score-reuse` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:691d48bc190063d50b6e811c7455ec325b1f29bcc7452301694470e83211188a` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`
- Dependence: `edge-material-shared-exam-items` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:8f61eda50599e5c6c226c2dcb7818c8627f23979fd5b51669aa62e5d52f6d110` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-model-performance-root`
- Dependence: `edge-method-single-free-response-run` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:1ed5b88123954bc8da25cf9422c2df70e30d3569ddd99213e9cf5590bf8522c3` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-model-performance-root`
- Dependence: `edge-model-historical-snapshots` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:e7c0af1eebfe5fa400bcb3369655f40adf482a99cc91a370f6e6a586f847f133` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-model-performance-root`
- Dependence: `edge-score-component-composite` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:21278e42f97e114bc1442703ca96eea56725d7bb221a07e5c31f5adfc512b040` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-model-performance-root`

- Source: [Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam](https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/25018513)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:ca6ba91cbc68c2a3aa343fc059aa3058d27baa364e998d9c05393578c6045d5c` · `sha256:53c5c3cd65f0c06ae12ec339f9a8f503b977ebaf9c1cd8723d9caecfa42bcdcb`
- Locator: footnote 5
- License: CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

- Source: [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774v1)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:2c6c231a62e11f961467d990d3bd0ad2d4d4568fcd39891c16e6fe4622e9448b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:859fa96f390685d21c4db9633a6d9c7fec7abe76cdf8a1f8c0c9c82501b193eb` · `sha256:1703b719a1fad06284c9cde691496e2ee6cc9371ab7808d8abfc50ab3ed0c2f9`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:2400a4ddb632abda72527df1b7e8f30dd7f400818992926a8e8119c057e9aff5` · `sha256:5abbca6a7e803506a3ed9db112873db65bfb4ba80dde648b0ba7b9ae96161a9f`
- Locator: Appendix A.5, PDF p. 25
- License: arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed · arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed

- Source: [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774v1)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:2c6c231a62e11f961467d990d3bd0ad2d4d4568fcd39891c16e6fe4622e9448b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:859fa96f390685d21c4db9633a6d9c7fec7abe76cdf8a1f8c0c9c82501b193eb` · `sha256:1703b719a1fad06284c9cde691496e2ee6cc9371ab7808d8abfc50ab3ed0c2f9`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:61f2be1da866e5764042a9022c4a0a0eb5d320a0df71f95a24a1a1eb5fd271ac` · `sha256:e0b72dc61e4614a425e991b3fd9641db637b3516311659728f615bed0ea4100c`
- Locator: Appendix A.1, PDF p. 23
- License: arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed · arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed

- Source: [Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam](https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/25018513)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:477c595f89b6efc4f4fac04d627e65d95daa7929d10f76d3486a96c6c8bf8b06` · `sha256:7e376175b36f8e2809bc74e378c7354858289a689370b70f82df2965d32b9026`
- Locator: footnote 5
- License: CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

- Source: [Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam](https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/25018513)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:293687df5cf4b74d839237414173205591aacf4850103e1621aece4f21fb763b` · `sha256:e6c808d4b4dcd243210518497a0c8788d06ee91d8571c474c13514c2c8afe04b`
- Locator: §4(d), Table 7
- License: CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

- Source: [percentile_analysis_new.Rmd](https://osf.io/download/gujmp/?view_only=dcc617accc464491922b77414867a066)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:47ce609849ae1ff1224df62ce9b453707dd9b7a93cd4413822c84178eac7f853` · `sha256:11db34f6066f861f338266e98c11852743b727734f62c1a773ae257bf219e609`
- Locator: introduction, journal p. 584
- License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

- Source: [Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam](https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/25018513)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:076f2679614413d88a366ceec578a4c96672df24e2fe9dc8afe1242c8c7a5496` · `sha256:9107c310f1bb38d087940d7432c989d2ab81d8e79356bc6a42a6c64bbf2db37e`
- Locator: §3(a), materials
- License: CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

- Source: [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774v1)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:2c6c231a62e11f961467d990d3bd0ad2d4d4568fcd39891c16e6fe4622e9448b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:859fa96f390685d21c4db9633a6d9c7fec7abe76cdf8a1f8c0c9c82501b193eb` · `sha256:1703b719a1fad06284c9cde691496e2ee6cc9371ab7808d8abfc50ab3ed0c2f9`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:8b5e9985c61e0fea14503003ec6422ec54340f4069def5d98d5e1b7147da6ba6` · `sha256:eebbf2c0c2999d72a017e9af6b4799d65577fb0715ac5d85e6ee757e05aae78e`
- Locator: Appendix A.3, PDF p. 24
- License: arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed · arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed

- Source: [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774v1)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:2c6c231a62e11f961467d990d3bd0ad2d4d4568fcd39891c16e6fe4622e9448b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:859fa96f390685d21c4db9633a6d9c7fec7abe76cdf8a1f8c0c9c82501b193eb` · `sha256:1703b719a1fad06284c9cde691496e2ee6cc9371ab7808d8abfc50ab3ed0c2f9`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:6f6629457faeeb750d379bc919a2030743b0fd07db285521e3a54a46f02ab3ab` · `sha256:9dc5f4260c333122ddb37e7ca7e2f3eecd1d1976475145759b772a7701c58f1e`
- Locator: Appendix A.6, PDF p. 25
- License: arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed · arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed

- Source: [Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam](https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/25018513)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:5dd561ae54601a051ef573af4ec859665f4f1d2fb801788a1339de8b16dd44fc` · `sha256:0ce9516e5b95f3b35121d471b8ab8d39b67199ffb40941deb28e07e2a07926ab`
- Locator: footnote 4
- License: CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

### Support

The same disclosed linear interpolation places 298 near 67.8th in the July 2018 Illinois chart.

- Relation: `relation-assertion-claim-july-sensitive` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:73716abf204fa15d841ff6b95c2dfbe303e3fcb4e06c26923a8fa5a618593415`
- Proposition: `claim-july-sensitive` · `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:c03843891cd010c53ddbe03e8d0128baeeccd8dedde381d2aaf3ed9a8bf08752`
- Assertion: `assertion-claim-july-sensitive` · `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:8feb34c96f4f746c4cea970e4ced3e891be6c2faa4d74e8370abed8ab69e8371`
- Lineage: `lineage-illinois-comparison-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a5b9820aa7d6c9062b89944f259392c039fbe5285b626d4f71d54dfd44f51a20`
- Dependence: `edge-benchmark-illinois-charts` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:3bbbc190e0662f0d0cf22c4bf02a5abe6f9e71e95061afd3dc94f535c83fb57a` · `lineage-illinois-comparison-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`

- Source: [Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents](https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/percentile-equivalent-charts-feb-2018)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2b720aa3b7368249b079f4bc7d3de383efc590510bc33e1ed88db133e9293237` · `sha256:a9aa31983924ffec8d0e713ad29fc16a0e466557a57eba5061577afc4698bae6`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:3ec4b97842a7b34ea0a2857a50da7f6a02eb1556351c7ec727b2cccd2743637c` · `sha256:fe399dcc350821ac8ab546593931f1e34b24d811cad9062126e487a53783a783`
- Locator: total-scale table, rows 300 and 290
- License: no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

- Source: [Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents](https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/percentile-equivalent-charts-feb-2018)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:9be0e724fc35f74c96e635c6263f8f44ef804c3406c34b268bb710b24228a368` · `sha256:44de7bd89cd4aeacee7b38d7077ff659e3baf552cb9b295401ec9b7229c04964`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:56a011a09e4e7dd05afbc0309c94d4dcfa1ecf1d6fd3df6a6a6f65204c7ccf03` · `sha256:b3b8f789db7571a4fd8ed73e5380f2847aae920172722b9f6f51eec96c62e9ce`
- Locator: total-scale table, rows 300 and 290
- License: no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

- Source: [Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents](https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/percentile-equivalent-charts-feb-2018)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2c2badc4c75c58ca49007bda1f0c1fcad4b301ecd060bc905bd8a741acd80925` · `sha256:91185bd6263d73e5976b5b00f28fb9b62301be0bb0347b1d0a308c295f6a6151`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:1e2736835309f364d7f8553b6e26a7c9802dce86c720c84fa2097f7e3a755ca3` · `sha256:29f7ab38f7ff54e4576aa5b3c6fd310debd0520513f68fc3e21744af073923f8`
- Locator: total-scale table, rows 300 and 290
- License: no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

#### Calculation · `relation-assertion-derive-illinois-feb-2018-298`

reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation: 89.0; equation="p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)"; comparison_population=null; depends_on=[].

- Proposition: `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:b3eb260778bfb82eeb304b0af6d0f95ae5970cb1e83f64f824eadc453cf0a11f`
- Assertion: `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:f5102c2dfb6527bc325f323f122a10c78a78bc7422ed053fbe00e8edf7d6ab1d`
- Input/source: `span-calculation-derive-illinois-feb-2018-298` · `sha256:3037e78d052c9ae7ef8fc027de340daa7e7a1e7488092ce8c1d4ab46cfe1762e`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831` · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c` · `sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4b`
  - Locator: accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-feb-2018-298

```json
{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-illinois-feb-2018-298",
    "equation": "p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-illinois-feb-2018-290",
      "cell-illinois-feb-2018-300"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-illinois-feb-2018-anchors"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "p290": 85.0,
      "p300": 90.0,
      "score": 298
    },
    "method": "reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation",
    "result_percentile": 89.0,
    "uncertainty": "Neither Illinois nor OpenAI disclosed this interpolation; it cannot be attributed as the launch method."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2018-290",
      "percentile": 85,
      "score": 290
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2018-300",
      "percentile": 90,
      "score": 300
    }
  ]
}
```
- Input/source: `span-illinois-feb-2018-anchors` · `sha256:b3b8f789db7571a4fd8ed73e5380f2847aae920172722b9f6f51eec96c62e9ce`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:9be0e724fc35f74c96e635c6263f8f44ef804c3406c34b268bb710b24228a368` · `sha256:44de7bd89cd4aeacee7b38d7077ff659e3baf552cb9b295401ec9b7229c04964`
  - Locator: total-scale table, rows 300 and 290

#### Calculation · `relation-assertion-derive-illinois-feb-2019-298`

reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation: 88.6; equation="p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)"; comparison_population=null; depends_on=[].

- Proposition: `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:5e417788588abd558e96b1e86a8abbf760107f1b2c5cf87ab39ef6533de01c6f`
- Assertion: `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:2c467a78217c9cfd8e1927f656d2c404085fc79f1544227ad10737e3c0e96bb4`
- Input/source: `span-calculation-derive-illinois-feb-2019-298` · `sha256:76a57ca09947680e56c24258540370c4538e5e7d69931cb76882834e659fb1f2`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831` · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c` · `sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4b`
  - Locator: accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-feb-2019-298

```json
{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-illinois-feb-2019-298",
    "equation": "p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-illinois-feb-2019-290",
      "cell-illinois-feb-2019-300"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-illinois-feb-2019-anchors"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "p290": 83.0,
      "p300": 90.0,
      "score": 298
    },
    "method": "reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation",
    "result_percentile": 88.6,
    "uncertainty": "Neither Illinois nor OpenAI disclosed this interpolation; it cannot be attributed as the launch method."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2019-290",
      "percentile": 83,
      "score": 290
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-feb-2019-300",
      "percentile": 90,
      "score": 300
    }
  ]
}
```
- Input/source: `span-illinois-feb-2019-anchors` · `sha256:29f7ab38f7ff54e4576aa5b3c6fd310debd0520513f68fc3e21744af073923f8`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2c2badc4c75c58ca49007bda1f0c1fcad4b301ecd060bc905bd8a741acd80925` · `sha256:91185bd6263d73e5976b5b00f28fb9b62301be0bb0347b1d0a308c295f6a6151`
  - Locator: total-scale table, rows 300 and 290

#### Calculation · `relation-assertion-derive-illinois-jul-2018-298`

reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation: 67.8; equation="p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)"; comparison_population=null; depends_on=[].

- Proposition: `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:16d42772ecd2e1cf09e10207fd84bcdd82413184a1ca7e0a6f71222759c24539`
- Assertion: `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:173e036ea146192840c20d9a90986e589e15e92a37c4018264f3dba905e58e4c`
- Input/source: `span-calculation-derive-illinois-jul-2018-298` · `sha256:1e02e47e6e3f6a7c2422be3a698ecce3d17899aef055d0f47f2745ec043366f5`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831` · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c` · `sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4b`
  - Locator: accepted derivation and input cells: derive-illinois-jul-2018-298

```json
{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-illinois-jul-2018-298",
    "equation": "p298 = p290 + ((298 - 290) / 10) * (p300 - p290)",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-illinois-jul-2018-290",
      "cell-illinois-jul-2018-300"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-illinois-jul-2018-anchors"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "p290": 59.0,
      "p300": 70.0,
      "score": 298
    },
    "method": "reviewer sensitivity only: linear interpolation",
    "result_percentile": 67.8,
    "uncertainty": "Neither Illinois nor OpenAI disclosed this interpolation; it cannot be attributed as the launch method."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-jul-2018-290",
      "percentile": 59,
      "score": 290
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-illinois-jul-2018-300",
      "percentile": 70,
      "score": 300
    }
  ]
}
```
- Input/source: `span-illinois-jul-2018-anchors` · `sha256:fe399dcc350821ac8ab546593931f1e34b24d811cad9062126e487a53783a783`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2b720aa3b7368249b079f4bc7d3de383efc590510bc33e1ed88db133e9293237` · `sha256:a9aa31983924ffec8d0e713ad29fc16a0e466557a57eba5061577afc4698bae6`
  - Locator: total-scale table, rows 300 and 290

### Support

The Martínez version of record and code support roughly 45th under the encoded passers model, while its abstract and discussion say roughly 48th; the packet preserves 45/48 as an internal discrepancy.

- Relation: `relation-assertion-claim-martinez-passers-conflict` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:98f71b562a1c5d46cd4a56ad684083756ac580d2ecdc0c1db9cb1b0438094252`
- Proposition: `claim-martinez-passers-conflict` · `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:4c6ac4b24cbd908f89d988c4bb1dbc008e9ff3b5bb4fffaa313145d1762465ce`
- Assertion: `assertion-claim-martinez-passers-conflict` · `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:35a975b45cb9ebe6fed26d97fde109f534f7ce69613026271c16226ebf3c1182`
- Lineage: `lineage-martinez-analysis-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:e6057f0dbfa37d0264e471e67a3941297a56467e67cad715d0eb37490d320cdd`
- Dependence: `edge-benchmark-illinois-charts` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:3bbbc190e0662f0d0cf22c4bf02a5abe6f9e71e95061afd3dc94f535c83fb57a` · `lineage-illinois-comparison-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`
- Dependence: `edge-citation-katz-to-martinez` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:a8c16efd90634c0a152f0fdd7a0a02f8d844004ea05edec24ec4651bf00764cc` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`
- Dependence: `edge-comparison-class-first-time-passers--1` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:c26568911130747cbc372db3bcb7c6a64cecaa0134fb60ab0def98d7ceb621e4` · `lineage-ncbe-comparison-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`
- Dependence: `edge-comparison-class-first-time-passers--2` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:0b7e8f83a90479b952cdbf35c12046e8810bf312a6f413158f9d4567bc45849b` · `lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`
- Dependence: `edge-data-reported-score-reuse` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:691d48bc190063d50b6e811c7455ec325b1f29bcc7452301694470e83211188a` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`
- Dependence: `edge-derivation-comparison-inputs--1` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:8e1e29f851db71dfa10a5e236ce568d68a73d9c9dcc9e57be569669606ec66a7` · `lineage-ncbe-comparison-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`
- Dependence: `edge-derivation-comparison-inputs--2` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:4cb023d071772f2c5de160eda970a23d215bd0e51de0ebef48513742b7b92ab4` · `lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`

- Source: [percentile_analysis_new.Rmd](https://osf.io/download/gujmp/?view_only=dcc617accc464491922b77414867a066)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:0b68dabbe1d021424ed271a53217094910a82be36032ddf2fb7d527e519ac280` · `sha256:d999f5238c2ce339081283354841c9949e5a6a71a5370ea28eb635484832a707`
- Locator: discussion, journal p. 598
- License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

- Source: [percentile_analysis_new.Rmd](https://osf.io/download/gujmp/?view_only=dcc617accc464491922b77414867a066)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:e4d9982c357259d2e11c9d6e647569ca0338134240924a766792fbba54de7502` · `sha256:94dbb34cb0b30aefe6ad46a54298be28df4bf1014c3a0d389f63e4615b3dc9bf`
- Locator: §3.2.2, journal p. 591
- License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

- Source: [percentile_analysis_new.Rmd](https://osf.io/download/gujmp/?view_only=dcc617accc464491922b77414867a066)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:7da66b96a0ba3914388da9f878232040b78dc3be4727b77afe738797c9e53c8b` · `sha256:e4f31613c4c910062cc0c84109333b81d866660c9565c354ac91f5fc1f76716f`
- Locator: lines 166-168
- License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

- Source: [percentile_analysis_new.Rmd](https://osf.io/download/gujmp/?view_only=dcc617accc464491922b77414867a066)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:474fb98347f7e6e5fa04ed79707987e9ee63b657d6f1c5e2435843ec6a1cddbe` · `sha256:200178847adc47281f699728e39c7ce7bb3f84704ed70de68b2e0c012f955be5`
- Locator: Table 3, journal p. 591
- License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

- Source: [Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents](https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/percentile-equivalent-charts-feb-2018)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:9be0e724fc35f74c96e635c6263f8f44ef804c3406c34b268bb710b24228a368` · `sha256:44de7bd89cd4aeacee7b38d7077ff659e3baf552cb9b295401ec9b7229c04964`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:56a011a09e4e7dd05afbc0309c94d4dcfa1ecf1d6fd3df6a6a6f65204c7ccf03` · `sha256:b3b8f789db7571a4fd8ed73e5380f2847aae920172722b9f6f51eec96c62e9ce`
- Locator: total-scale table, rows 300 and 290
- License: no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

- Source: [Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents](https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/percentile-equivalent-charts-feb-2018)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2c2badc4c75c58ca49007bda1f0c1fcad4b301ecd060bc905bd8a741acd80925` · `sha256:91185bd6263d73e5976b5b00f28fb9b62301be0bb0347b1d0a308c295f6a6151`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:1e2736835309f364d7f8553b6e26a7c9802dce86c720c84fa2097f7e3a755ca3` · `sha256:29f7ab38f7ff54e4576aa5b3c6fd310debd0520513f68fc3e21744af073923f8`
- Locator: total-scale table, rows 300 and 290
- License: no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

- Source: [Illinois February 2018 Bar Examination Percentile Equivalents](https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/percentile-equivalent-charts-feb-2018)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2b720aa3b7368249b079f4bc7d3de383efc590510bc33e1ed88db133e9293237` · `sha256:a9aa31983924ffec8d0e713ad29fc16a0e466557a57eba5061577afc4698bae6`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:3ec4b97842a7b34ea0a2857a50da7f6a02eb1556351c7ec727b2cccd2743637c` · `sha256:fe399dcc350821ac8ab546593931f1e34b24d811cad9062126e487a53783a783`
- Locator: total-scale table, rows 300 and 290
- License: no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

- Source: [Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam](https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/25018513)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:477c595f89b6efc4f4fac04d627e65d95daa7929d10f76d3486a96c6c8bf8b06` · `sha256:7e376175b36f8e2809bc74e378c7354858289a689370b70f82df2965d32b9026`
- Locator: footnote 5
- License: CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

- Source: [First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022](https://thebarexaminer.ncbex.org/2022-statistics/first-time-exam-takers-and-repeaters-in-2022/)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b3dddcd76a7bbe208e296d4b9a13fc53e91cd14df2ae42ee1c91803569240eca` · `sha256:f42357f4f20e9db92a1a48755cb2f269123cb4ee93cecc042bff83d990989794`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:f8fe10f696eb9dc37fa067a0b10401f5bf1e29589d6c6071cfaa44c15e59b183` · `sha256:1feddb6e088dae626d7d1cc8f6a0207c19ac7e9f736830bf3a3ae4085e374a42`
- Locator: table note
- License: no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

- Source: [First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022](https://thebarexaminer.ncbex.org/2022-statistics/first-time-exam-takers-and-repeaters-in-2022/)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081` · `sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:160241d336f3cc06be5b4d52f6ac9229563916a9ca197dbbacb968b7c60981f8` · `sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653b`
- Locator: Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266
- License: no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

- Source: [First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2022](https://thebarexaminer.ncbex.org/2022-statistics/first-time-exam-takers-and-repeaters-in-2022/)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:5e5c17ba424f84711ba55a14e9bf2b2846c2c05389280d7e21e1f1b2ad37810d` · `sha256:d2ce119a524286fa88bbaf4438c9052d77a5b728990db41cbc8cad70dc6740c4`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:352571f2e61d157a8943ca6216ef23f38b6ae5cde1b55838d1a424bcc4ee9f09` · `sha256:c389829939a67dd8c1d353a75cb1bdbc6823160e0582ba17bf83ba6d1e939dbc`
- Locator: NCBE MBE-based data, February and July 2022 totals
- License: no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

- Source: [New York Bar Exam 2022 Statistics](https://www.nybarexam.org/ExamStats/2022_NY_Bar_Exam_PassRates.pdf)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f` · `sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74f`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703` · `sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11`
- Locator: FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022
- License: no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

- Source: [Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam](https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/25018513)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:293687df5cf4b74d839237414173205591aacf4850103e1621aece4f21fb763b` · `sha256:e6c808d4b4dcd243210518497a0c8788d06ee91d8571c474c13514c2c8afe04b`
- Locator: §4(d), Table 7
- License: CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

- Source: [percentile_analysis_new.Rmd](https://osf.io/download/gujmp/?view_only=dcc617accc464491922b77414867a066)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:47ce609849ae1ff1224df62ce9b453707dd9b7a93cd4413822c84178eac7f853` · `sha256:11db34f6066f861f338266e98c11852743b727734f62c1a773ae257bf219e609`
- Locator: introduction, journal p. 584
- License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

- Source: [percentile_analysis_new.Rmd](https://osf.io/download/gujmp/?view_only=dcc617accc464491922b77414867a066)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:c93f04ab5c92ae7955b75278cff1f0392210fc5462823dbe30cba42b5ffbab38` · `sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0c`
- Locator: lines 55-58
- License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

- Source: [percentile_analysis_new.Rmd](https://osf.io/download/gujmp/?view_only=dcc617accc464491922b77414867a066)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:7c297fee53ebcae4ddc2b4bd2301d9742b570914c364b3993890c92c3ab42d83` · `sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55b`
- Locator: lines 104-112
- License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

- Source: [The Testing Column: Why Are February Bar Exam Pass Rates Lower than July Pass Rates?](https://thebarexaminer.ncbex.org/article/spring-2022/the-testing-column-5/)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49` · `sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:6f0efeaf8fa67729f3f75793e1b64ce9961bb3463e5acc9d9c4a1d5aeb588520` · `sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302`
- Locator: paragraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'
- License: no open license confirmed · no open license confirmed

#### Calculation · `relation-assertion-derive-martinez-first-time-essay`

normal CDF at essay score 140 using assumed MBE distribution: 41.520892709392534; equation=null; comparison_population="modeled first-time essay scores"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

- Proposition: `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:8b4297b5104a65c7f8bddf8b32ed22ff861e9c48bfd3f310cd2004f0422891a3`
- Assertion: `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:cd35ba2db639224fb309527b6345a677d99b6477c0af28d3b1780b3b760db33e`
- Input/source: `span-calculation-derive-martinez-first-time-essay` · `sha256:a9c27ee78ab735acd0cc44a48abf93543d47b7e31106e8b749ad9acd73d94272`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831` · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c` · `sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4b`
  - Locator: accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-essay

```json
{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time essay scores",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-essay",
    "method": "normal CDF at essay score 140 using assumed MBE distribution",
    "result_percentile": 41.520892709392534
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}
```
- Input/source: `span-martinez-mean-assumption` · `sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62d`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
  - Locator: §3.1, journal p. 588
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution` · `sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0c`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 55-58
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-ube-sd` · `sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 104-112
- Input/source: `span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022` · `sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081` · `sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7`
  - Locator: Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266
- Input/source: `span-ny-first-timers-2022` · `sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f` · `sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74f`
  - Locator: FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022
- Input/source: `span-reshetar-first-time-mean` · `sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49` · `sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2`
  - Locator: paragraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'

#### Calculation · `relation-assertion-derive-martinez-first-time-mbe`

normal CDF at MBE score 158: 78.82324690739395; equation=null; comparison_population="modeled first-time MBE takers"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

- Proposition: `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:added6c64552253aad1f336b1c4d88de6dd6172647d50fa5bddd3820feecf458`
- Assertion: `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:7df08eee7d48ee98980dc48dcd4257c04f6a03ee5db70b69f16762e4122880ff`
- Input/source: `span-calculation-derive-martinez-first-time-mbe` · `sha256:0222f9c217d52a28eaeb28caf33d560864fd14ba99c48d7ebd7fa0aa4fdba995`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831` · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c` · `sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4b`
  - Locator: accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-mbe

```json
{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time MBE takers",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-mbe",
    "method": "normal CDF at MBE score 158",
    "result_percentile": 78.82324690739395
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}
```
- Input/source: `span-martinez-mean-assumption` · `sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62d`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
  - Locator: §3.1, journal p. 588
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution` · `sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0c`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 55-58
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-ube-sd` · `sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 104-112
- Input/source: `span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022` · `sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081` · `sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7`
  - Locator: Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266
- Input/source: `span-ny-first-timers-2022` · `sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f` · `sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74f`
  - Locator: FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022
- Input/source: `span-reshetar-first-time-mean` · `sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49` · `sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2`
  - Locator: paragraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'

#### Calculation · `relation-assertion-derive-martinez-first-time-ube`

normal CDF at score 298: 61.60252541656707; equation="100 * Phi((298 - 287.6) / derived_ube_sd)"; comparison_population="modeled first-time UBE takers"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

- Proposition: `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:e239947e9f182874d45854038dd31c8374fadebae4638ef0e25f91f286fe7202`
- Assertion: `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:a5fe847c3d60f4185c2335a2160eb3e8223fb2e1a8e2174b611efd1cc9f442d0`
- Input/source: `span-calculation-derive-martinez-first-time-ube` · `sha256:95f5718ef7d21ae6fb0218ba919638f6bee7e0a849abfab1144857c83941d8c2`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831` · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c` · `sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4b`
  - Locator: accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-first-time-ube

```json
{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time UBE takers",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-first-time-ube",
    "equation": "100 * Phi((298 - 287.6) / derived_ube_sd)",
    "method": "normal CDF at score 298",
    "result_percentile": 61.60252541656707
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}
```
- Input/source: `span-martinez-mean-assumption` · `sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62d`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
  - Locator: §3.1, journal p. 588
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution` · `sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0c`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 55-58
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-ube-sd` · `sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 104-112
- Input/source: `span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022` · `sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081` · `sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7`
  - Locator: Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266
- Input/source: `span-ny-first-timers-2022` · `sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f` · `sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74f`
  - Locator: FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022
- Input/source: `span-reshetar-first-time-mean` · `sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49` · `sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2`
  - Locator: paragraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'

#### Calculation · `relation-assertion-derive-martinez-parameters`

analytic reproduction of the executable OSF inputs: {"derived_ube_sd":35.24729455256271,"sample_mbe_sd":17.74327194332649,"z_at_0_27":-0.6128129910166272}; equation=null; comparison_population=null; depends_on=[].

- Proposition: `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:8a265341b3cca87de499aa7fe9807fcb85405a680c9899fb2844a96717923ac6`
- Assertion: `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:46b0fa65ec0a5d666de7e82ebfe7ea040c7bccf9d1862d67389fdc9ae6f6d6cb`
- Input/source: `span-calculation-derive-martinez-parameters` · `sha256:b92c0e5f9e2866c3806a45f478310c538513bb17644f78c91900edf5fc547d2e`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831` · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c` · `sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4b`
  - Locator: accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-parameters

```json
{
  "derivation": {
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-parameters",
    "input_cell_ids": [
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-85",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-90",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-95",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-100",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-105",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-110",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-115",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-120",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-125",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-130",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-135",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-140",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-145",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-150",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-155",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-160",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-165",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-170",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-175",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-180",
      "cell-martinez-july-mbe-185",
      "cell-ncbe-ube-score-266",
      "cell-ny-first-timers-rate"
    ],
    "input_span_ids": [
      "span-reshetar-first-time-mean",
      "span-martinez-mean-assumption",
      "span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution",
      "span-martinez-script-ube-sd",
      "span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022",
      "span-ny-first-timers-2022"
    ],
    "inputs": {
      "assumed_first_time_essay_mean": 143.8,
      "assumed_first_time_ube_mean": 287.6,
      "first_time_mbe_mean": 143.8,
      "july_mbe_binned_observations": 1002,
      "new_york_cutoff": 266.0,
      "new_york_nonpass_proportion": 0.27
    },
    "method": "analytic reproduction of the executable OSF inputs",
    "results": {
      "derived_ube_sd": 35.24729455256271,
      "sample_mbe_sd": 17.74327194332649,
      "z_at_0_27": -0.6128129910166272
    },
    "uncertainty": "The UBE distribution is inferred from aggregate inputs and normality; the essay mean/SD are assumed rather than observed."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": [
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-85",
      "count": 2,
      "score": 85
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-90",
      "count": 2,
      "score": 90
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-95",
      "count": 5,
      "score": 95
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-100",
      "count": 6,
      "score": 100
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-105",
      "count": 13,
      "score": 105
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-110",
      "count": 22,
      "score": 110
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-115",
      "count": 33,
      "score": 115
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-120",
      "count": 56,
      "score": 120
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-125",
      "count": 73,
      "score": 125
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-130",
      "count": 78,
      "score": 130
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-135",
      "count": 104,
      "score": 135
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-140",
      "count": 96,
      "score": 140
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-145",
      "count": 101,
      "score": 145
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-150",
      "count": 99,
      "score": 150
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-155",
      "count": 99,
      "score": 155
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-160",
      "count": 79,
      "score": 160
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-165",
      "count": 64,
      "score": 165
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-170",
      "count": 38,
      "score": 170
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-175",
      "count": 22,
      "score": 175
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-180",
      "count": 8,
      "score": 180
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-martinez-july-mbe-185",
      "count": 2,
      "score": 185
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-ncbe-ube-score-266",
      "column": "Score",
      "row": "266",
      "text": "266"
    },
    {
      "cell_id": "cell-ny-first-timers-rate",
      "column": "Rate",
      "row": "ALL Candidates",
      "text": "73%"
    }
  ]
}
```
- Input/source: `span-martinez-mean-assumption` · `sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62d`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
  - Locator: §3.1, journal p. 588
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution` · `sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0c`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 55-58
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-ube-sd` · `sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 104-112
- Input/source: `span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022` · `sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081` · `sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7`
  - Locator: Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266
- Input/source: `span-ny-first-timers-2022` · `sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f` · `sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74f`
  - Locator: FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022
- Input/source: `span-reshetar-first-time-mean` · `sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49` · `sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2`
  - Locator: paragraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'

#### Calculation · `relation-assertion-derive-martinez-passers-essay`

normal CDF conditional on modeled essay score >= 135: 15.252536216882072; equation=null; comparison_population="modeled essay scores at or above 135"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

- Proposition: `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:6c97aaa7a9bc70f03c07f91df685245b1a1278b97bb4e9bcf56f7e85861dda76`
- Assertion: `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:bfe2fd3438fb2f351efa67ef5066876074b428fd1fcd8b6c379070873fda676b`
- Input/source: `span-calculation-derive-martinez-passers-essay` · `sha256:e28cf7118b36578f51acca1366d26808d9189b9b699ff2f8ce7c4b77bde9b468`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831` · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c` · `sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4b`
  - Locator: accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-passers-essay

```json
{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled essay scores at or above 135",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-essay",
    "method": "normal CDF conditional on modeled essay score >= 135",
    "result_percentile": 15.252536216882072
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}
```
- Input/source: `span-martinez-mean-assumption` · `sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62d`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
  - Locator: §3.1, journal p. 588
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution` · `sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0c`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 55-58
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-ube-sd` · `sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 104-112
- Input/source: `span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022` · `sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081` · `sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7`
  - Locator: Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266
- Input/source: `span-ny-first-timers-2022` · `sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f` · `sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74f`
  - Locator: FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022
- Input/source: `span-reshetar-first-time-mean` · `sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49` · `sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2`
  - Locator: paragraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'

#### Calculation · `relation-assertion-derive-martinez-passers-mbe`

normal CDF conditional on modeled MBE score >= 135: 69.31081545343784; equation=null; comparison_population="modeled MBE scores at or above 135"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

- Proposition: `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:c564ce54eb3b2d6f72781fee0e99f5162aec79993a6aa87f999d7b8d2775420e`
- Assertion: `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:837a7e443196825e489e5e7f7a09e74cdcd36ce65a43cf63c504a479c59da0a5`
- Input/source: `span-calculation-derive-martinez-passers-mbe` · `sha256:bc34a7eda1879f438d7e7945440d3db419371f000787488a1830b7c283f81845`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831` · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c` · `sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4b`
  - Locator: accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-passers-mbe

```json
{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled MBE scores at or above 135",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-mbe",
    "method": "normal CDF conditional on modeled MBE score >= 135",
    "result_percentile": 69.31081545343784
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}
```
- Input/source: `span-martinez-mean-assumption` · `sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62d`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
  - Locator: §3.1, journal p. 588
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution` · `sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0c`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 55-58
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-ube-sd` · `sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 104-112
- Input/source: `span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022` · `sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081` · `sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7`
  - Locator: Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266
- Input/source: `span-ny-first-timers-2022` · `sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f` · `sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74f`
  - Locator: FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022
- Input/source: `span-reshetar-first-time-mean` · `sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49` · `sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2`
  - Locator: paragraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'

#### Calculation · `relation-assertion-derive-martinez-passers-ube`

normal CDF conditional on modeled UBE score >= 270: 44.45020553281165; equation="100 * (F(298) - F(270)) / (1 - F(270))"; comparison_population="modeled first-time scores at or above 270"; depends_on=["derive-martinez-parameters"].

- Proposition: `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:9119f9ff62ea1e7760aabb53df19e6824e081aaab2d28ddac873b49ba1829c69`
- Assertion: `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:0e84c467e4cdeee807106e9fa021760a1a2e63bcd7fb41c4cfccea488558b23f`
- Input/source: `span-calculation-derive-martinez-passers-ube` · `sha256:5cd325ee19d0d60ca21ed01dcf1cc3c6cfb1edfb2f9fb702d680f03a2ec1a8f3`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:bb86be7b07b85a8d09a4fab4b2526a49c82b959ee3fb31bcf33ff7a5e6e27831` · Repository instrumentation under Apache-2.0; accepted source licenses remain attached to their source editions
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:32d3146687af86ae7865d08fbc1636a0c0aa6195e52cb00350ce4b0d525ade2c` · `sha256:ab330f3d40dfdb5e467da1f66c8f2d318b6b5ed88b770555956d3c5c79151a4b`
  - Locator: accepted derivation and input cells: derive-martinez-passers-ube

```json
{
  "derivation": {
    "comparison_population": "modeled first-time scores at or above 270",
    "depends_on": [
      "derive-martinez-parameters"
    ],
    "derivation_id": "derive-martinez-passers-ube",
    "equation": "100 * (F(298) - F(270)) / (1 - F(270))",
    "method": "normal CDF conditional on modeled UBE score >= 270",
    "result_percentile": 44.45020553281165,
    "uncertainty": "The script uses 270 for this filter after using New York's 266 cutoff to infer UBE SD."
  },
  "resolved_input_cells": []
}
```
- Input/source: `span-martinez-mean-assumption` · `sha256:d292fbd6a0a2c16559d69c651b273374cef4c7383b7c2605b97f85381bf8c62d`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
  - Locator: §3.1, journal p. 588
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-july-mbe-distribution` · `sha256:9912e2d4f1e369b4f9529d27b6d1fef5936814f0c6151a9fe9f675af8c375e0c`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 55-58
- Input/source: `span-martinez-script-ube-sd` · `sha256:29d389334aa2b12045b1d9febb630b66d80d832615d0764534e4e0a2ac49b55b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:b135493e681d789459bf386b90f79308cc68da4559b410ad6e818779a81f2745` · `sha256:c90a873989a59d231475a13a92e3ad1d0d3276514ad54e4e5df695cd35e48666`
  - Locator: lines 104-112
- Input/source: `span-ncbe-ny-cutoff-2022` · `sha256:8e029f660745d0cb0de2acd77e8d6e8c8f9c544d1ba560c3250bc30861ad653b`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2000492e8e5040cd8f5eaa216e7fc1d4d21d4f58afbfc6af5a218f4f53333081` · `sha256:b55af410679b66b8a0057d5f8dd17baec7985675c94d7af44818f5c4c418cfb7`
  - Locator: Minimum Passing UBE Score by Jurisdiction in 2022, row 266
- Input/source: `span-ny-first-timers-2022` · `sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f` · `sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74f`
  - Locator: FIRST TIMERS, ALL Candidates, Combined 2022
- Input/source: `span-reshetar-first-time-mean` · `sha256:1452bea6f3158b2b58d90800d02a6cf2348935e6a194e07ab22efc88c5f26302`
  - Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:802fad21dc2e69f5baff90d345e036b898bf958351af8eae39f346d23e005a12` · no open license confirmed
  - Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:852a2ad23d9f6f760f0f21c4147eb6dd1b3c936ea9704e3dc3f743de193e4e49` · `sha256:460f8d22d10526ee2a92e1fb4045e1cabacb0dc4a668e142a91a30592ccf0ed2`
  - Locator: paragraph beginning 'The numbers from 2019'

### Support

None of the captured sources measures performance against practicing lawyers or establishes general legal competence.

- Relation: `relation-assertion-claim-no-lawyer-rank` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:557b5a29466beafd389b33f1f9c0ab1cf0c96adda878cdc87363397912088a19`
- Proposition: `claim-no-lawyer-rank` · `em:dossier-proposition:sha256:e98f731fe4f066e80cefdb1712238ca5d5b9c08854f86b5a99bd132df05177a6`
- Assertion: `assertion-claim-no-lawyer-rank` · `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:3c3793e084854e911d7a2aece20cf4a7f9f430d3f71a36e87cee09ed9228a514`
- Lineage: `lineage-model-performance-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:c8b81e09b0245e5c5302dd89be2d627f7658d7ab0d5de6d56adef3df0f65e145`
- Dependence: `edge-author-social-collaboration` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:b616095462050178a4dedd71e5ad524effaa71d20808eceb206d203f9aae8204` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-model-performance-root`
- Dependence: `edge-citation-katz-to-martinez` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:a8c16efd90634c0a152f0fdd7a0a02f8d844004ea05edec24ec4651bf00764cc` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`
- Dependence: `edge-data-reported-score-reuse` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:691d48bc190063d50b6e811c7455ec325b1f29bcc7452301694470e83211188a` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-martinez-analysis-root`
- Dependence: `edge-material-shared-exam-items` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:8f61eda50599e5c6c226c2dcb7818c8627f23979fd5b51669aa62e5d52f6d110` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-model-performance-root`
- Dependence: `edge-method-single-free-response-run` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:1ed5b88123954bc8da25cf9422c2df70e30d3569ddd99213e9cf5590bf8522c3` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-model-performance-root`
- Dependence: `edge-model-historical-snapshots` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:e7c0af1eebfe5fa400bcb3369655f40adf482a99cc91a370f6e6a586f847f133` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-model-performance-root`
- Dependence: `edge-score-component-composite` · `em:dossier-evidence-relation:sha256:21278e42f97e114bc1442703ca96eea56725d7bb221a07e5c31f5adfc512b040` · `lineage-model-performance-root` → `lineage-model-performance-root`

- Source: [percentile_analysis_new.Rmd](https://osf.io/download/gujmp/?view_only=dcc617accc464491922b77414867a066)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:cceeb7bbb8f7496871eeb81724f8be4bcd784bde0cbf28a236ecd81d5ad7b8b3` · `sha256:3a80dd544d7516c8d33d8b55a4cdf44a2975a279ad377d53b09927cfcc26a733`
- Locator: §3.1, journal pp. 588-589
- License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

- Source: [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774v1)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:2c6c231a62e11f961467d990d3bd0ad2d4d4568fcd39891c16e6fe4622e9448b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:859fa96f390685d21c4db9633a6d9c7fec7abe76cdf8a1f8c0c9c82501b193eb` · `sha256:1703b719a1fad06284c9cde691496e2ee6cc9371ab7808d8abfc50ab3ed0c2f9`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:c574b1bd1adfdbb6b446b321eb656c49dc7a710ed609089c52069dd4da29d296` · `sha256:61393f3895d80b5bb5e4e4240ff6c4b8bb9246f22b58ac1a766643c63887e95a`
- Locator: abstract, PDF p. 1
- License: arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed · arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed

- Source: [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774v1)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:2c6c231a62e11f961467d990d3bd0ad2d4d4568fcd39891c16e6fe4622e9448b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:859fa96f390685d21c4db9633a6d9c7fec7abe76cdf8a1f8c0c9c82501b193eb` · `sha256:1703b719a1fad06284c9cde691496e2ee6cc9371ab7808d8abfc50ab3ed0c2f9`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:61f2be1da866e5764042a9022c4a0a0eb5d320a0df71f95a24a1a1eb5fd271ac` · `sha256:e0b72dc61e4614a425e991b3fd9641db637b3516311659728f615bed0ea4100c`
- Locator: Appendix A.1, PDF p. 23
- License: arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed · arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed

- Source: [Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam](https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/25018513)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:477c595f89b6efc4f4fac04d627e65d95daa7929d10f76d3486a96c6c8bf8b06` · `sha256:7e376175b36f8e2809bc74e378c7354858289a689370b70f82df2965d32b9026`
- Locator: footnote 5
- License: CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

- Source: [Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam](https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/25018513)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:293687df5cf4b74d839237414173205591aacf4850103e1621aece4f21fb763b` · `sha256:e6c808d4b4dcd243210518497a0c8788d06ee91d8571c474c13514c2c8afe04b`
- Locator: §4(d), Table 7
- License: CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

- Source: [percentile_analysis_new.Rmd](https://osf.io/download/gujmp/?view_only=dcc617accc464491922b77414867a066)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:47ce609849ae1ff1224df62ce9b453707dd9b7a93cd4413822c84178eac7f853` · `sha256:11db34f6066f861f338266e98c11852743b727734f62c1a773ae257bf219e609`
- Locator: introduction, journal p. 584
- License: CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed

- Source: [Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam](https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/25018513)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:076f2679614413d88a366ceec578a4c96672df24e2fe9dc8afe1242c8c7a5496` · `sha256:9107c310f1bb38d087940d7432c989d2ab81d8e79356bc6a42a6c64bbf2db37e`
- Locator: §3(a), materials
- License: CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

- Source: [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774v1)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:2c6c231a62e11f961467d990d3bd0ad2d4d4568fcd39891c16e6fe4622e9448b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:859fa96f390685d21c4db9633a6d9c7fec7abe76cdf8a1f8c0c9c82501b193eb` · `sha256:1703b719a1fad06284c9cde691496e2ee6cc9371ab7808d8abfc50ab3ed0c2f9`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:8b5e9985c61e0fea14503003ec6422ec54340f4069def5d98d5e1b7147da6ba6` · `sha256:eebbf2c0c2999d72a017e9af6b4799d65577fb0715ac5d85e6ee757e05aae78e`
- Locator: Appendix A.3, PDF p. 24
- License: arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed · arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed

- Source: [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774v1)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:2c6c231a62e11f961467d990d3bd0ad2d4d4568fcd39891c16e6fe4622e9448b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:859fa96f390685d21c4db9633a6d9c7fec7abe76cdf8a1f8c0c9c82501b193eb` · `sha256:1703b719a1fad06284c9cde691496e2ee6cc9371ab7808d8abfc50ab3ed0c2f9`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:6f6629457faeeb750d379bc919a2030743b0fd07db285521e3a54a46f02ab3ab` · `sha256:9dc5f4260c333122ddb37e7ca7e2f3eecd1d1976475145759b772a7701c58f1e`
- Locator: Appendix A.6, PDF p. 25
- License: arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed · arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed

- Source: [Appendix for GPT-4 passes the Bar Exam](https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/25018513)
- Work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b`
- Edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
- Span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:5dd561ae54601a051ef573af4ec859665f4f1d2fb801788a1339de8b16dd44fc` · `sha256:0ce9516e5b95f3b35121d471b8ab8d39b67199ffb40941deb28e07e2a07926ab`
- Locator: footnote 4
- License: CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

## Complete count ledgers

### Historical Model Run (1)

- `root-historical-simulated-ube-run` — Historical simulated-UBE model-performance root
  - lineages: `lineage-model-performance-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:c8b81e09b0245e5c5302dd89be2d627f7658d7ab0d5de6d56adef3df0f65e145`
  - Status: known
  - Dependence dimensions: `data`, `method`, `model`, `social`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:ee862ec363b34142a0bebb11247959c3457a8982de69653364d7d36f10059703` · `sha256:57920d8649f509df54908d08dfaefb9860e1afc005095c6cd4cb051344dff044`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b` · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree

### Official Administration Sensitivities (3)

- `root-illinois-february-2018` — Illinois February 2018 comparison root
  - lineages: `lineage-illinois-comparison-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a5b9820aa7d6c9062b89944f259392c039fbe5285b626d4f71d54dfd44f51a20`
  - Status: known
  - Dependence dimensions: `data`, `source`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:56a011a09e4e7dd05afbc0309c94d4dcfa1ecf1d6fd3df6a6a6f65204c7ccf03` · `sha256:b3b8f789db7571a4fd8ed73e5380f2847aae920172722b9f6f51eec96c62e9ce`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:9be0e724fc35f74c96e635c6263f8f44ef804c3406c34b268bb710b24228a368` · `sha256:44de7bd89cd4aeacee7b38d7077ff659e3baf552cb9b295401ec9b7229c04964`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd` · no open license confirmed
- `root-illinois-february-2019` — Illinois February 2019 comparison root
  - lineages: `lineage-illinois-comparison-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a5b9820aa7d6c9062b89944f259392c039fbe5285b626d4f71d54dfd44f51a20`
  - Status: known
  - Dependence dimensions: `data`, `source`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:1e2736835309f364d7f8553b6e26a7c9802dce86c720c84fa2097f7e3a755ca3` · `sha256:29f7ab38f7ff54e4576aa5b3c6fd310debd0520513f68fc3e21744af073923f8`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2c2badc4c75c58ca49007bda1f0c1fcad4b301ecd060bc905bd8a741acd80925` · `sha256:91185bd6263d73e5976b5b00f28fb9b62301be0bb0347b1d0a308c295f6a6151`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd` · no open license confirmed
- `root-illinois-july-2018` — Illinois July 2018 comparison root
  - lineages: `lineage-illinois-comparison-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a5b9820aa7d6c9062b89944f259392c039fbe5285b626d4f71d54dfd44f51a20`
  - Status: known
  - Dependence dimensions: `data`, `source`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:3ec4b97842a7b34ea0a2857a50da7f6a02eb1556351c7ec727b2cccd2743637c` · `sha256:fe399dcc350821ac8ab546593931f1e34b24d811cad9062126e487a53783a783`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2b720aa3b7368249b079f4bc7d3de383efc590510bc33e1ed88db133e9293237` · `sha256:a9aa31983924ffec8d0e713ad29fc16a0e466557a57eba5061577afc4698bae6`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd` · no open license confirmed

### Rooted Evidence Units (7)

- `root-model-performance` — Historical model-performance root
  - lineages: `lineage-model-performance-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:c8b81e09b0245e5c5302dd89be2d627f7658d7ab0d5de6d56adef3df0f65e145`
  - Status: known
  - Dependence dimensions: `data`, `method`, `model`, `social`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:ee862ec363b34142a0bebb11247959c3457a8982de69653364d7d36f10059703` · `sha256:57920d8649f509df54908d08dfaefb9860e1afc005095c6cd4cb051344dff044`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b` · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree
- `root-martinez-reanalysis` — Martinez modeled re-analysis root
  - lineages: `lineage-martinez-analysis-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:e6057f0dbfa37d0264e471e67a3941297a56467e67cad715d0eb37490d320cdd`
  - Status: known
  - Dependence dimensions: `data`, `method`, `model`, `source`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:e4d9982c357259d2e11c9d6e647569ca0338134240924a766792fbba54de7502` · `sha256:94dbb34cb0b30aefe6ad46a54298be28df4bf1014c3a0d389f63e4615b3dc9bf`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
- `root-illinois-feb-2018` — Illinois February 2018 root
  - lineages: `lineage-illinois-comparison-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a5b9820aa7d6c9062b89944f259392c039fbe5285b626d4f71d54dfd44f51a20`
  - Status: known
  - Dependence dimensions: `data`, `source`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:56a011a09e4e7dd05afbc0309c94d4dcfa1ecf1d6fd3df6a6a6f65204c7ccf03` · `sha256:b3b8f789db7571a4fd8ed73e5380f2847aae920172722b9f6f51eec96c62e9ce`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:9be0e724fc35f74c96e635c6263f8f44ef804c3406c34b268bb710b24228a368` · `sha256:44de7bd89cd4aeacee7b38d7077ff659e3baf552cb9b295401ec9b7229c04964`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd` · no open license confirmed
- `root-illinois-feb-2019` — Illinois February 2019 root
  - lineages: `lineage-illinois-comparison-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a5b9820aa7d6c9062b89944f259392c039fbe5285b626d4f71d54dfd44f51a20`
  - Status: known
  - Dependence dimensions: `data`, `source`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:1e2736835309f364d7f8553b6e26a7c9802dce86c720c84fa2097f7e3a755ca3` · `sha256:29f7ab38f7ff54e4576aa5b3c6fd310debd0520513f68fc3e21744af073923f8`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2c2badc4c75c58ca49007bda1f0c1fcad4b301ecd060bc905bd8a741acd80925` · `sha256:91185bd6263d73e5976b5b00f28fb9b62301be0bb0347b1d0a308c295f6a6151`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd` · no open license confirmed
- `root-illinois-jul-2018` — Illinois July 2018 root
  - lineages: `lineage-illinois-comparison-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a5b9820aa7d6c9062b89944f259392c039fbe5285b626d4f71d54dfd44f51a20`
  - Status: known
  - Dependence dimensions: `data`, `source`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:3ec4b97842a7b34ea0a2857a50da7f6a02eb1556351c7ec727b2cccd2743637c` · `sha256:fe399dcc350821ac8ab546593931f1e34b24d811cad9062126e487a53783a783`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:2b720aa3b7368249b079f4bc7d3de383efc590510bc33e1ed88db133e9293237` · `sha256:a9aa31983924ffec8d0e713ad29fc16a0e466557a57eba5061577afc4698bae6`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:a2e64d0c97109c831bb2facc8c180da8179ed37526502ea73dbe3016fdf003dd` · no open license confirmed
- `root-ncbe-aggregates` — NCBE scoring and population aggregate root
  - lineages: `lineage-ncbe-comparison-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:a674ad6aa3453c54eb437d844fd6070006c25bbb05cb6463bfffd2eee9e24eae`
  - Status: known
  - Dependence dimensions: `data`, `source`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:b00f1cab5f375334f432b9de6ffb480cebae7ee1557ad424feb6a6223ae1cf25` · `sha256:0f6d015b519414ebec9cd4f12bbf7dea62dc9f77fb21378d73690b451d5f0f1e`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:3b7b0ad7942bb25d248c4fffe8e6bcfa1b806e7f695c9cda6ffd170359cc1ba6` · `sha256:ab04a05f122d9dff51b76f2e9be9f78c0bdcf25f58fc62047cc4c5abd040346c`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:324982bb2b90295b84f9e309ab84ca9a46cd0f1be9e9e3079a18bcc20bf58e63` · no open license confirmed
- `root-new-york-pass-rates` — New York first-time pass-rate root
  - lineages: `lineage-new-york-pass-rate-root` · `em:dossier-lineage:sha256:b426c4edd6b881b995272c355d5dc869ffe4153c0bcbe662e7ffef1a5267e48b`
  - Status: known
  - Dependence dimensions: `data`, `source`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:468763dc341321dd638ef9a08f6606ac5e02806a4086e4b0ba7bc05400c1d703` · `sha256:e55680bc3d09d5c2968a8449c122db232a89c5f89b29dc9944b69c2b1eeeee11`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:10bbf9ff899ba3ad12de154e0ab9ea7cc3f34c0f2263e79951e26539911bec5f` · `sha256:bbdcb28fb38b0d7d03ddb4e4bcfbcca170d2443491a180fee0978c7510cdb74f`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:51aa3262776f5da4a8ef12ab7f49366ef761951213e3a38f519a0a6b5d6534f1` · no open license confirmed

### Unresolved Boundaries (3)

- `boundary-launch-comparator` — Launch comparison distribution is unspecified
  - assertions: `assertion-claim-launch-comparison-unspecified` · `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:e5b09f98417934e590aa916b7e5c657dc707fb55ab33c81d87a6a724d48fc159`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:ca6ba91cbc68c2a3aa343fc059aa3058d27baa364e998d9c05393578c6045d5c` · `sha256:53c5c3cd65f0c06ae12ec339f9a8f503b977ebaf9c1cd8723d9caecfa42bcdcb`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:21621ede6a23bb3f98867c0918e5d9808d6dced5ca3f271a3a52e561810f2f7b` · `sha256:9d10cfedd531e62d96ea27bb78b00a9148e6b5d8135807836c5982e65a42416e`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:880443d56eafdb224149d953f7de48e7550d53f814008551895b180ecb4b203b` · CC BY 4.0; CC BY 4.0 at the article/file level; collection-level license null; no open license confirmed; no repository license at the pinned tree
- `boundary-45-48` — Martinez 45th-versus-48th internal discrepancy
  - assertions: `assertion-claim-martinez-passers-conflict` · `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:35a975b45cb9ebe6fed26d97fde109f534f7ce69613026271c16226ebf3c1182`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:e4d9982c357259d2e11c9d6e647569ca0338134240924a766792fbba54de7502` · `sha256:94dbb34cb0b30aefe6ad46a54298be28df4bf1014c3a0d389f63e4615b3dc9bf`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:65219a4731cb2e79f58629db4793e659a48da74aa74c3a3db5049ce260701667` · `sha256:c74c66e3adc8a45af5bac9e338c11d927dd2d95c8386b2d4bb52ef2591c7a0a5`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:3e91b5cabaf08b648f9e9e505d7fa5e9519cca7becf3ec753b1777075e4d512b` · CC BY 4.0; no file license confirmed; no node or file license confirmed
- `boundary-lawyer-quality` — No practicing-lawyer comparison
  - assertions: `assertion-claim-no-lawyer-rank` · `em:dossier-assertion:sha256:3c3793e084854e911d7a2aece20cf4a7f9f430d3f71a36e87cee09ed9228a514`
  - Basis span: `em:dossier-span:sha256:c574b1bd1adfdbb6b446b321eb656c49dc7a710ed609089c52069dd4da29d296` · `sha256:61393f3895d80b5bb5e4e4240ff6c4b8bb9246f22b58ac1a766643c63887e95a`
  - Basis edition: `em:dossier-edition:sha256:859fa96f390685d21c4db9633a6d9c7fec7abe76cdf8a1f8c0c9c82501b193eb` · `sha256:1703b719a1fad06284c9cde691496e2ee6cc9371ab7808d8abfc50ab3ed0c2f9`
  - Basis work: `em:dossier-source-work:sha256:2c6c231a62e11f961467d990d3bd0ad2d4d4568fcd39891c16e6fe4622e9448b` · arXiv non-exclusive distribution license; no Creative Commons license confirmed

## Reproducibility identity

- Dossier: `em:dossier:sha256:babe89ba3bda594a8d9f2db86a5a2987f284437a069b940d19b6928856d936d1`
- Review receipt: `f35f8c093778ad1cdeafc57746575f1a82d12fe6e6fbf0d1d4a546e3c5296e1e`
- Catalog: `em:catalog:sha256:4ad9ec81da535bc3654c54fda56a78fbb9f225a2241b59046bf04f275737db35`
- Frontier: `em:frontier:sha256:f02db233ff58fb7bda690ac78335d18a3b36046b578f44ca54d4bdc291821f47`
- Accepted commit: `a5c025f37672be0c6e8b315aa9dd719d8a4f68d1`
- Content digest: `ac6f1ee94ad6f315b0a688e631aecdc52c6615cea0e9d1e759dc508326d120a1`